追逐黄金：在体面的2025年之后，复苏是否仍在等待？

Q4 2025 Going for Gold: After aRespectable 2025, Does aResurgence Await? Analysis of Q4 Trends in LeveragedFinance INVESTMENT BANKING Highlights, Analysis, and ResultsFrom William Blair’s Quarterly Leveraged Finance Newsletter Going for Gold: After a Respectable 2025,Does a Resurgence Await? 2025 marked a respectableyear for new issuance volumein the face of uneven market Record opportunistic repricing andrefinancing activity in 2024 driven by increases in volume tied to M&A, andLBOs in particular, will be a key factorfor the leveraged finance markets.Outside of M&A, dividend falling rates and limited supply represents a difficult comparison,despite a year of solid issuance in theface of increased volatility anduncertainty.recapitalization volume remainedstrong, finishing the year at $80.1 2025 featured several positive trendsbillion, just below the levels of 2024and the record-setting 2021. Given the continued growth in non-refinancingrelated activity. Institutional volumequieter M&A environment over thelast few years, sponsors and lendersalike have looked to dividend-related resilient in 2025 while facingsignificant volatility driven by fast-changing policy shifts and economicuncertainty. The optimism for abanner year following a record firstquarter did not materialize, butvolume across many key areas of themarket was stable-to-up. Despite aquiet fourth quarter, expectations for2026 remain high, particularly as it tied to M&A increased to $142.4billion, almost 10% higher than 2024and just shy of the levels seen in 2022.Much of this growth was driven bysponsor add-on and corporate Borrower-Friendly Market Reaches New Highs Each quarter we ask middle-market lenders to rate overall conditions in theleveraged finance market on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most borrower-friendly conceivable. The index increased to 4.3, the highest level since 2021, aslender demand continues to outpace supply. podium.U.S. institutional loan volume totaled$439.1 billion in 2025, finishing 13%below the $501.7 billion of the yearprior. Despite the year-over-yeardecline, 2025’s volume exceeded theaverage of the last 10 years as well as which a majority of lenders surveyedmade borrower-friendly concessionsthey historically would not have to wina deal. Concessions related to reducedrates, pricing and/or fees haveconsistently been the most commonform over the last two years. Spreadshave tightened to near record lowsacross both the broadly syndicatedloan and private credit markets. In the survey expected pricing to remain thesame in the coming year, with the refinancing volume during the yearwas the second highest on recordbehind only 2024’s total. The sametrend applied to repricing activity,which saw $503.6 billion of volume,trailing only the $756.8 billion in theyear prior. Overall, 76% of all activity The expectations around increasedvolumes in 2026 are likely to beinfluenced by several key externalfactors outside of deal flow andsponsors’ willingness to bring assets tomarket. The biggest elephant in theroom is likely to be the amalgam of tariffpolicy, economic uncertainty, andgeopolitical noise that was presentthroughout 2025. These risks havecaused material volatility across theleveraged finance and M&A markets, institutional loan volume finished at$70.7 billion, representing the lowestlevel since the fourth quarter of 2023and down over 50% from the priorquarter. The combination of seasonalfactors, secondary market weakness,and a slightly narrowing supply-demand imbalance all contributed tothe quarter’s softness. Volume acrossmultiple transaction types includingM&A ($26.7 billion), total non- much of the positive momentum thatbegan in 2024, as markets started torebound after tough years in 2022 and2023. Investors are optimistic about areturn of M&A volumes this year aselongated hold periods and significantdry powder drive the need to transact.In a positive early sign, 68% ofrespondents to William Blair’s lendersurvey saw increased volumes in thefourth quarter compared to the sixmonths prior and 72% indicated thattheir expectations for 2026 M&Aactivity increased during the quarter.M&A activity is likely to be the drivingforce behind net new volume aftermultiple years of opportunistic- new issuance.William Blair’s Leveraged LendingIndex increased to 4.3 (scale of 1 to 5with 5 being the most borrower-friendly), the highest reading since thefinal quarter of 2021. The volatilityexperienced over the course of 2025put expectations of a surge of activity several high-profile bankruptcies.To learn more about these and othertrends shaping the leveraged financemarket, please don’t hesitate to contact Leveraged Loan Multiples Total leverage ticked up slightly in Q4, reaching LTM highs, but remains largely inline with prior quarters. Institutional Loan Volume Total institutional loan volume decreased to $71 billion in Q4, mirroring Q2 and 2023levels. Opportunistic activity drove much of the decline, reversi