在体面的2025年之后，复苏是否还在等待

Q4 2025 Going for Gold: After aRespectable 2025, Does aResurgence Await? In This Report Analysis of Q4 Trends in LeveragedFinance INVESTMENT BANKING Highlights, Analysis, and ResultsFrom William Blair’s QuarterlyLeveraged Finance Lender Survey Leveraged Finance Newsletter Going for Gold: After a Respectable 2025,Does a Resurgence Await? issuance by 27%. For 2026, furtherincreases in volume tied to M&A, andLBOs in particular, will be a key factorfor the leveraged finance markets.Outside of M&A, dividendrecapitalization volume remainedstrong, finishing the year at $80.1billion, just below the levels of 2024and the record-setting 2021. Given thequieter M&A environment over thelast few years, sponsors and lendersalike have looked to dividend-relatedtransactions to return and deploycapital. In total, non-refinancingrelated issuance was $247.3 billion forthe year and marked the highest levelsince 2021. Record opportunistic repricing andrefinancing activity in 2024 driven byfalling rates and limited supplyrepresents a difficult comparison,despite a year of solid issuance in theface of increased volatility anduncertainty. 2025 marked a respectableyear for new issuance volumein the face of uneven marketconditions and quarters ofdivergent performance 2025 featured several positive trendsto finish the year, highlighted bycontinued growth in non-refinancingrelated activity. Institutional volumetied to M&A increased to $142.4billion, almost 10% higher than 2024and just shy of the levels seen in 2022.Much of this growth was driven bysponsor add-on and corporateissuance, both reaching post-2021highs, while LBO activity remainedmuted. LBO-related volume of $59.4billion was largely in line with the yearprior but trailed 10-year average The leveraged finance market wasresilient in 2025 while facingsignificant volatility driven by fast-changing policy shifts and economicuncertainty. The optimism for abanner year following a record firstquarter did not materialize, butvolume across many key areas of themarket was stable-to-up. Despite aquiet fourth quarter, expectations for2026 remain high, particularly as itrelates to an increase in M&A-drivenactivity. Market conditions continue tosit in highly borrower-friendlyterritory that should encourage newissuance. If market volatility canremain in check, 2026 looks well-positioned for a finish atop thepodium. As with 2024, though, the leveragedloan market was characterized by afrenetic pace of opportunisticrefinancing and repricing transactions Borrower-Friendly Market Reaches New Highs Each quarter we ask middle-market lenders to rate overall conditions in theleveraged finance market on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most borrower-friendly conceivable. The index increased to 4.3, the highest level since 2021, aslender demand continues to outpace supply. U.S. institutional loan volume totaled$439.1 billion in 2025, finishing 13%below the $501.7 billion of the yearprior. Despite the year-over-yeardecline, 2025’s volume exceeded theaverage of the last 10 years as well asfull-year totals for 2022 and 2023.Including repricings and extensions,annual volume surpassed $1.0 trillion,the second-highest total on record but25% off 2024’s total of $1.4 trillion. in 2025. The $191.8 billion ofrefinancing volume during the yearwas the second highest on recordbehind only 2024’s total. The sametrend applied to repricing activity,which saw $503.6 billion of volume,trailing only the $756.8 billion in theyear prior. Overall, 76% of all activityduring the year was related torefinancings, amendments orrepricings. which a majority of lenders surveyedmade borrower-friendly concessionsthey historically would not have to wina deal. Concessions related to reducedrates, pricing and/or fees haveconsistently been the most commonform over the last two years. Spreadshave tightened to near record lowsacross both the broadly syndicatedloan and private credit markets. In thebroadly syndicated market, spreadsfor B-minus-rated borrowers fell to354 basis points during the quarter,the lowest level since the GlobalFinancial Crisis. In a similar vein, theprivate credit market continued toprice a significant proportion of dealsat spreads of 500 basis points orbelow, with the highest quality dealsclearing as low as the mid-400s. survey expected pricing to remain thesame in the coming year, with theremainder largely split between modestincreases and decreases. The expectations around increasedvolumes in 2026 are likely to beinfluenced by several key externalfactors outside of deal flow andsponsors’ willingness to bring assets tomarket. The biggest elephant in theroom is likely to be the amalgam of tariffpolicy, economic uncertainty, andgeopolitical noise that was presentthroughout 2025. These risks havecaused material volatility across theleveraged finance and M&A markets,which could reappear if further negativenews returns. Another dynamic that willbe worth watching this year is thecross-market refina