南非：选定问题

SOUTH AFRICA SELECTED ISSUES February2026 This paperonSouth Africawas prepared by a staff team of the International MonetaryFund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund SOUTH AFRICA SELECTED ISSUES January 21, 2026 Prepared ByTidiane Kinda,Nasha Mavee,andSergii Meleshchuk. CONTENTS STRUCTURAL REFORMS TO BOLSTER SOUTH AFRICA’S BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT_______________________________________________________________________3 A. Background __________________________________________________________________________3B. Empirical Firm-Level Data Analysis ___________________________________________________6C. Deep Dive into South Africa’s Business-Regulation Environment __________________13 BOX 1. The Three-Tier Licensing & Permitting System in South Africa _____________________14 FIGURES1. Product Market Regulation – Overall Indicator _______________________________________4 2. Product Market Regulation – Sub-components ______________________________________43. Share of South Africans Firms Perceiving an Area as the Top Constraints they Face__54a. South Africa’s Distance to Business Regulation Frontier_____________________________64b. Macro-level Output Gains from Business Regulation Reform _______________________65a. Percent Time Spent Dealing with Regulations_______________________________________85b. Average Time Spent Dealing with Regulations______________________________________86. Impact of a One Percent Increase in Time Spent Dealing with Regulations onSelected Performance Indicators _______________________________________________________97. Impact of a One Percent Increase in Time Spent Dealing with Regulations onSelected Performance Indicators in South Africa _____________________________________10 SOUTH AFRICA TABLES1. South Africa And Other Countries Main Regressions _______________________________________11 2. Regression for South African Firms (All vs. Small Firms) ____________________________________12 APPENDIX I. Additional Tables ___________________________________________________________________________20 References___________________________________________________________________________________22 SPATIAL INEQUALITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: CAUSES AND POLICY OPTIONS_______________25 A. Introduction________________________________________________________________________________25B. Microdata Analysis of Spatial Inequality____________________________________________________26C. Microsimulation Analysis___________________________________________________________________29D. Dynamic Structural Spatial General-Equilibrium Analysis __________________________________32 BOXES 1. Theil Inequality Index: A Primer ____________________________________________________________292. Microsimulations Methodology ____________________________________________________________32 FIGURES1. Inequality Measures Across Countries______________________________________________________25 2. Transport Cost by Income Quintile _________________________________________________________253. Theil Decomposition by Metro Status ______________________________________________________274. Unemployment Rate by Median Time to Workplace _______________________________________275. Unemployment Odds Ratios by Travel _____________________________________________________286a. Scenario Comparison: Inequality, Unemployment, and Income (All Areas) ________________316b. Scenario Comparison: Inequality, Unemployment, and Income (Metro)___________________31 References ___________________________________________________________________________________36 STRUCTURAL REFORMS TO BOLSTER SOUTH AFRICA’S South Africa stands out as having one of the most restrictive business environments among peers.Burdensome government regulations, especially for licensing and permitting, weak procurementpractices, and limited competition can pose risks to business confidence and investment, stifleinnovation, increase compliance costs. Because they burden small firms disproportionately, theyparticularly inhibit job creation potential. Our econometric analysis, using cross-country firm-leveldata, finds that product market regulations, notably related to licensing and permitting, hinder firms’ A.Background 1.South Africa’s growth has been too weak for too long. After a strong performance in thefirst decade following the end of Apartheid (1994-2007) when annual growth averaged 3.6 percent,output growth has been lackluster. Average real growth of below 1 percent between 2008 and 2024has led to a decline in real per capita income to its 2007 level and an erosion of living standards for 2.The country’s weak growth performance has been attributed to entrenched structu