哈萨克斯坦共和国：国有企业、财政状况和风险

Republic ofKazakhstan:State-Owned Enterprises,the FiscalStance, and Risks Dyna Heng and Thomas Piontek SIP/2026/009 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on January 5, 2026. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/18. 2026FEB IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Republic ofKazakhstan: State-owned Enterprises, the Fiscal Stance, and RisksPrepared by Dyna Heng and Thomas Piontek Authorized for distribution by Ali Al-EydFebruary2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on January 5, 2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/4. ABSTRACT:State-owned enterprises (SOEs) remain a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s economy and growthmodel. However,SOEs’ quasi-fiscal activities conducted outside the fiscal framework obscure the overall fiscalstance, complicating macroeconomic management. This paper finds that the balance sheet expansion by majorSOEs averaged about 20 percent of the state budget expenditure over the past five years. If this activity werebooked as budgetary expenditure, the non-oil deficit would have been about 3.5 percentage points higher in2024–25, indicating a larger fiscal expansion than recorded in official budget figures. Moreover,underperformance of several SOEs could create significant contingent fiscal risks. Policymakers should betteralign SOE investment with fiscal objectives, strengthen monitoring, and assess risks to public finances. State-owned Enterprises, theFiscal Stance, and Risks Republic of Kazakhstan Prepared byDyna Heng, Thomas Piontek1 REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByMiddle East andCentral AsiaDepartment Prepared ByDyna Hengand Thomas Piontek (MCD). CONTENTS KAZAKHSTAN: STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, THE FISCAL STANCE, AND RISKS _2 A. Background __________________________________________________________________________2B. SOEs and the Fiscal Stance ___________________________________________________________4C. SOEs and Fiscal Risks_________________________________________________________________8D. Policy Recommendations to Reduce Contingent Fiscal Risks ______________________10 References____________________________________________________________________________12 APPENDIX I. Government’s Plans to Promote Investment Growth _______________________________13 KAZAKHSTAN: STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, THEFISCAL STANCE, AND RISKS1 State-owned enterprises (SOEs) remain a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s economy and growth model.Their large presence has two key implications for policy. First, SOEs’ quasi-fiscal activities conductedoutside the fiscal framework obscure the overall fiscal stance, complicating macroeconomicmanagement, while crowding out private sector activity. Second, the performance and liabilities ofSOEs pose contingent fiscal risks, particularly if commodity prices decline or financial conditionstighten. This paper estimates that the balance sheet expansion by major SOEs averaged about20 percent of the state budget expenditure over the past five years. If this activity were booked asbudgetary expenditure, the non-oil deficit would have been about 3.5 percentage points higher in2024–25, indicating a larger fiscal expansion than recorded in official budget figures. Additionally, theongoing underperformance of several SOEs could create significant contingent fiscal risks for thegovernment. Therefore, policymakers should carefully calibrate SOEs’ investment plans to ensureconsistency with the overall fiscal stance, regularly monitor the financial health and performance ofSOEs, and evaluate their potential impact on public finances. Limiting quasi-fiscal activities, enhancingtransparency, strengthening governance, and accelerating privatization are critical reforms toimplement. A.Background Union in 1991.In the 2000s, the governmentcreated large holding structures to managestate assets: Samruk Kazyna (SK) in 2008 andBaiterek National Managing Holding (BNMH)in 2013. SK oversees strategic assets in keysectors such as oil, gas, electricity,telecommunications, and infrastructure. BNMHwas formed from several development banksand funds, with the aim of supporting lendingto SMEs, housing, agriculture, andinfrastructure projects. Total assets of SK andBNMH more than tripled from about 16 trilliontenge in 2013 to 55 trillion tenge (about USD110 billion) in 2024 (text chart). Their combined Sources: Companies consolidated financial reports; staffestimates. economic footprint has been persistently high, at around 40 percent of GDP on average. 2.SOEs carry out policy mandates on behalf of the state, such as housing subsidies, SMElending, and infrastructure devel