支付创新的采用和福利效应：秘鲁数字钱包案例

by Arturo Andia, Jose Aurazo and Marcelo Paliza Monetary and Economic Department February 2026 Keywords:consumer welfare,demand estimation,digital payments, digital wallets, innovation, Peru BISWorking Papers are written by members of the Monetary and EconomicDepartment of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by othereconomists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). ©Bank for International Settlements 2026. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be ISSN 1020-0959 (print)ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Adoption and welfare effects of payment innovations: The case ofdigital wallets in Peru∗ Arturo Andia†Jose Aurazo‡This version: January 2026First draft: August 2025 Abstract Digital wallets like Yape and Plin have gained widespread popularity in Peru, allowing users tomake instant payments through quick response (QR) codes or mobile phone numbers. This paperexamines the drivers of their adoption and their impact on everyday life. Using market share data forsix digital payment instruments and cash from January 2019 to April 2024, we estimate the demandfor payment instruments and find that features such as lower fees, 24/7 immediate payments, QRcode payments, and interoperability with point-of-sale (POS) terminals are key to their success. Ourestimates suggest that a PEN 0.01 (USD 0.003) increase in payer fees would reduce the market share Keywords: Consumer welfare; Demand estimation; Digital payments; Digital wallets; Innovation; JEL Classification: G23; G28; L51; L96; O16; R11. 1Introduction Digital payments are instrumental in promoting financial inclusion. Financial inclusion, definedas the accessibility and affordability of financial services provided by formal institutions, is knownto stimulate economic growth (Fabregas and Yokossi, 2022; Qiu, 2022; Aguilar et al., 2024), curbpoverty (Aker et al., 2016), and reduce income inequality by gender (Suri and Jack, 2016) andeducation level (Grohmann and Menkhff, 2018). Digital payments, in particular fast payments, have In Latin America, most countries are moving towards a wider use of digital payments, with Braziland Chile being notable examples. In 2022, Brazilians made an average of 396 retail payments per capita,1up from 166 in 2018. Chileans made 279 payments per capita in 2022, up from 117 in 2018.Other countries are experiencing rapid growth from a low base. In 2018, Peru had one of the lowestuse of retail payments in the region, with 25 payments per capita, but increased to 99 paymentsin 2022. This makes it the country with the largest increase in Latin America (Banco Central de This rapid expansion in Peru’s digital payments is partly due to the success of two domestic digitalwallets, Yape and Plin. Since Yape’s launch in February 2017 and Plin’s in May 2020, both haveexhibited remarkable adoption rates.By December 2023, these two wallets accounted for over 50% of total retail cashless transactions in Peru, surpassing card payments (23%) as the primarycashless payment method.2Compared to 2019, digital wallets and ACH immediate transfers arethe only payment instruments that increased their market shares, while credit and debit cards,intra-bank transfers, and ACH non-immediate transfers lost relevance. These digital wallets are used Barrantes and Alzamora (2023) and Aurazo and Gasmi (2024) discuss a couple of success factors ofYape. These include the successful communication strategy with young people, the application’sconvenience and ease of use and the large network of micro and small businesses. We complementthis work and suggest a combination of enablers, catalysts and key design features.First, theenablers such as financial accounts penetration, mobile phone and internet coverage were improved.The Covid-19 pandemic acted as a catalyst due to mandatory lockdowns, social distancing, and This paper makes two key contributions to the current literature on digital payments and consumerwelfare.First, we adapt the framework introduced by Berry (1994) to estimate the demand ofpayment instruments. Moreover, we incorporate network effects and address price endogeneity in the the first empirical estimates of welfare impacts in this context. These contributions build on recentstudies of payment choice models and fast payment systems (Frost et al., 2024; Shy, 2020) and offer Our paper focuses on six digital payment instruments available in Peru: digital wallets (Yape andPlin), intra-bank transfers, ACH immediate and non-immediate transfers, debit cards, and credit cards. We also include cash as the "outside option" or default alternative.4To better reflect thebehavior of banked consumers with access to this set of payment instruments, we calculate themarket shares of payment methods in two steps, using both the value and number of transactions.This approach captures the shift in consumer preferences, with cash usage declining fr