全球人工智能趋势追踪报告：谷歌2025年第四季度业绩解读

Global AI Trend Tracker 5 February 2026 EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY Google’s 4Q25 results read-throughQuick Note Research Analysts China Technology Bing Duan - NIHKbing.duan1@nomura.com+852 2252 2141 Alphabet (GOOG US, Not rated) reported its December quarter earnings on 5 Februaryafter US market close, following which management hosted an earnings call at 2:30pmPT. During the call, management discussed the company’s AI cloud businessperformance, its progress on monetizing AI products such as token usage, and Gen AIadoption across Google apps and platforms.The company recorded strong capex ofUSD91.4bn (+74.1% y-y) in FY25, translating into USD27.9bn (95.1% y-y, 16.3% q-q)for 4Q25, and capex guidance for FY26E was USD175-185bn (with the midpoint ofUSD180bn indicating +97% y-y growth), which is much higher than the previousBloomberg consensus forecast of USD120bn. Given Google’s continuous robust Joel Ying, CFA - NIHKjoel.ying@nomura.com+852 2252 2153 Top-line and bottom-line growth beats consensus estimates in 4Q25; strong uptickin capex guidance for FY26E Alphabet reported 18.0% y-y (+11.2% q-q) revenue growth in 4Q25,beating theBloomberg consensus estimate by 2.2%, while it recorded net profit growth of29.8% y-y,beating the consensus estimate by 7.9%.The company booked Google Cloud revenue growth of 47.8% y-y (16.5% q-q) toUSD17.7bn in 4Q25,beating consensus by 9%, while itsoperating margin •improved 12.6pp y-y (+7.6pp q-q)to 30.1% in 4Q25.•In terms of capex, Alphabet spent USD27.9bn in 4Q25 (+95.1% y-y and 16.3% q-q),missing the consensus by 1%, with majority invested in tech infrastructure, and• Google Cloud: significant OPM improvement driven by strong demand forenterprise AI products Google Cloud's revenue grew 48%, due to strong demand for enterprise AI productsand enterprise AI infrastructure driven by deployment of TPUs and GPUs. Revenuefrom generative AI models grew nearly 400% y-y in 4Q25, driven by sales of the Google Cloud’s operating margin increased from 17.5% to 30.1% in 4Q, driven bystrong demand for enterprise AI products. Nearly 75% of Google Cloud customers using vertically optimized AI, from chipsto models to AI platforms and enterprise AI agents. Google Cloud’s high-margin AI-powered products and services with14 product lineshave each exceeding USD1bn in annual revenue. Google Cloud's annual run-rate over USD70bn, with backlog increasing 55% q-q toUSD240bn. Google Cloud doubled the new customer velocity compared to 1Q, and the number of• Production Complete: 2026-02-05 08:05 UTC deals in 2025 over USD1bn surpassed those in the previous three years combined. Google Cloud's AI accelerators serve for leading Frontier AI labs and capital marketsfirms such as Citadel Securities, while Gemini is used by over 120,000 enterprisesincluding 95% of the top 20 and over 80% of the top 100 SaaS companies, including AI progress: Gemini app has 750mn MAUs; 8mn+ paid seats for Gemini Enterprise Gemini 3 Pro has consistently processed 3x as many daily tokenson average asGemini 2.5 Pro, while theGemini app now has over 750mn MAUsand over 8mnpaid seats for Gemini Enterprise. Gemini models processed over 10bn tokens perminute via direct API used by customers, up from 7bn in the previous quarter.• Google Search saw increased usage in 4Q, with AI driving expansion; AI Modequeries per user doubled in the US, and queries were 3x longer, with monetization Google Antigravity, a new development platform in which agents can autonomouslyplan and execute complex software tasks, already had more than 1.5mn WAUs in its Google was able to lower Gemini's serving unit costs by 78% over 2025throughmodel optimization, efficiency, and utilization improvements. YouTube launched new AI creation tools, used by over 1mn channels daily, and an"Ask" tool powered by Gemini, used by over 20mn viewers. Management is collaborating with Apple (AAPL US, Not rated)as its preferredcloud provider and to develop next-generation Apple Foundation Models based on Revenue from AI solutions built by partners grew nearly 300% y-y,andcommitments from its top 15 software partners increased over 16x. Management indicated that it is currently supply constrained, particularly for computecapacity, and anticipate remaining such a situation throughout 2026 due to strong Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Nomura research Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Nomura research Appendix A-1 This report has been produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK), Hong Kong.SeeDisclaimersfor Nomura Group entity details. Analyst Certification I, Bing Duan, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related tothe specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no