2035年汽车软件与电子市场

The automotive software and electronics Despite challenges such as advanced autonomous driving delays, our latest research reveals significant growthareas—some powered by AI—in the automotive software and electronics market through 2035. This article is a collaborative effort by Dominik Hepp, Martin Kellner, and Sören Jautelat, with Michael Guggenheimer and Tomás Aloise,representing views from McKinsey’s Automotive & Assembly Practice and the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility. The automotive softwareand electronics market istransitioning to zonal and central computing architecturesthat help enable more scalable, software-defined vehicles(SDVs) that support advanced features such as over-the-airupdates, enhanced connectivity, and gen AI integration.1 architectures and ADAS could promote growth for theautomotive software and electronics industry, variousfactors could come into play that may alter the futurelandscape. Disruptions in demand, for example, coulddelay launch of new platforms as well as the advanced not homogenous and that considerable challenges and For example, continued advancements in capabilities have beenaccompanied by significant delays in the deployment of level3 or level 4 driving automation.3These delays have temperedexpectations for fully autonomous vehicles to be deployed inthe near term. Likewise, while electric vehicle (EV) penetrationhas grown since McKinsey’s last automotive electronics andsoftware market outlook in 2023, regulatory demand driversaround EVs have changed considerably. Because new EVplatforms are often the first adopter of a new electric andelectronic (E/E) architecture, delays in EV platforms often also At the same time, however, infotainment system complexityand dissemination have increased demand for thesesystems, and gen AI has yielded significant gains in complexfeatures for vehicles. Thus, despite setbacks and broaderuncertainty, software, electronics, and gen AI have emerged Gen AI is accelerating innovation as autonomous driving,connected vehicles, electrification, and shared mobility(ACES) continues to reshape the automotive industry.2In fact, in contrast to the overall vehicle market, which isgrowing by around 1.0 percent CAGR annually, the globalautomotive software and electronics market could growby 4.5 percent CAGR and reach $519 billion by 2035. This Our latest research provides an updated perspective on themodeled trajectory of the automotive software and E/E marketthrough 2035 (see sidebar, “How we derived our insights”). All of these developments have reduced overall demandin the software and electronics market. Further, it is How we derived our insights Market size is determined by the number (per vehicle) of a givencomponent, its average selling price, and the number of vehiclesproduced in a year. To ensure each model is appropriately granular,we classify markets by automotive domains (for example, ad-vanced driver assistance systems, body, and infotainment) as wellas characteristics such as vehicle segment, OEM type, or Societyof Automation Engineers level. The number of vehicles produced The qualitative research that informs this article includes inter-views with executives in the automotive sector and insights fromthe experts within McKinsey’s Automotive & Assembly Practice.We gleaned quantitative market insights using bottom-up market —software development, integration, verification, and validation —control units, including electronic, domain, zonal, and central —sensors —power electronics All research in this article applies to light vehicles, including pas-senger cars and light commercial vehicles. —other components (harnesses, controls, switches, and Vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems and autonomousdriving could account for nearly 70 percent of vehicle sales by 2035. Vehicle sales by SAE level. According to McKinsey analysis,vehicles with level 2 ADAS could make up 52 percent of vehiclesales by 2030. Safety regulations that require new vehiclesto have more of the sensors used in level 2 ADAS will likelyspur much of this market growth; as adoption increases, theoverall cost of the required hardware and software will likelydecrease. OEMs now offer level 2 ADAS packages at a muchmore affordable price than in the past, for example. Meanwhile,increasing customer preference for and willingness to buyAD-capable vehicles could boost sales of vehicles with level McKinsey & Company AI could improve or enable numerous software functions by 2035, especially inadvanced driver assistance systems, automated driving, and infotainment. AI-enabled software functions. AI has the potential toimprove software features that make up 70 percent ofthe total market size. The market share for ADAS andinfotainment is significantly higher—due to end-to-endlearning for level 2 and above ADAS and voice control orpersonalization in in-vehicle infotainment, for example.Nonetheless, AI also shows potential to improve thefunctio