印度尼西亚：选定问题

INDONESIA SELECTED ISSUES January 2026 This paperonIndonesiawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund INDONESIA SELECTED ISSUES December 16, 2025 Approved ByAsia and Pacific Prepared byAshique Habib, Raju Huidrom (both APD),Philippe Wingender and Tsendsuren Batsuuri (both RES)with research support from Agnes Isnawangsih and Shutong CONTENTS GOLDEN VISION 2045: MAKING THE MOST OUT OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT _______3 A. Introduction __________________________________________________________________________3B. Methodology_________________________________________________________________________5C. Results _______________________________________________________________________________7 References _____________________________________________________________________________ 13 ANNEX I. Technical Details _____________________________________________________________________ 11 GOLDEN VISION 2045: REAPING THE GAINS FROM TRADE _______________________14 A. Key Policies and Structural Factors Affecting Trade _________________________________15B. Model and Scenario Description ____________________________________________________18C. Main Results_________________________________________________________________________21D. Exploiting Complementarities between Trade Integration and Other StructuralReforms_____________________________________________________________________________24E. Trade-Induced Investments and Production Changes can Amplify Gains ___________25F. Conclusion___________________________________________________________________________27 References _____________________________________________________________________________ 28 FIGURES 1. Exports to Major Partners____________________________________________________________________ 14 2. Tariffs and Non-Tariff Restrictions ___________________________________________________________ 16 3. Depth Measures with Key Partners and Empirical Relationship with Trade __________________ 17 4. Logistics and Human Capital, and Relationship to Trade Costs______________________________ 18 6. Real GDP Gains ______________________________________________________________________________ 21 7. Impact of Unilateral Trade Opening on Sectoral Real Value Added _________________________ 22 8. Impact of Trade Agreements on Sectoral Real Value Added ________________________________ 23 9. Gains by Trading Partner ____________________________________________________________________ 24 10. Complementarities with Structural Reforms________________________________________________ 25 11. Potential Gains from Intermediates Use Intensification ____________________________________ 27 GOLDEN VISION 2045: MAKING THE MOST OUT OF Aside from horizontal structural reforms, raising public investment should be a key pillar of Indonesia’spursuit of its Vision 2045. However, this must be complemented by policies aimed at enhancing theefficiency of public investment, thereby maximizing its impact. Mobilizing additional revenues will A.Introduction Currently classified as an upper-middle income country, reaching this goal—Golden Vision 2045—would require a sustained high rate of real growth—estimated around 5½ -6½ percent annuallyover the next two decades (Annex I.A). As highlighted in previous IMF work, achieving this target 2.Boosting public investment—efficiently and prudently—is crucial for the growthagenda. This would help close current gaps in physical—and human—capital needed to bolster growth. Indonesia’s public stock of capital per-capita is only a quarter of that of the advancedeconomies. Enhancing the efficiency of public investment is also important. Indonesia’s efficiencygap—the difference between actual public spending outcomes and the best achievable outcomes deterioration in spending efficiency. This recent trend is also mirrored by a rise in the IncrementalCapital Output Ratio (ICOR), implying that a larger investment is required for the same unit increasein output. Finally, fiscal prudence is a key pillar of this agenda with plans for boosting investment 3.This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of public investment on activity—the multiplier—and the role of spending efficiency therein. The public investment multiplier is the change in real output for a unit increase in real public investment.3We use twocomplementary approaches to assess the size of the public investment multiplier for Indonesia. •Empirical model.Using a cross-country panel, we estimate the impact of public investmentshocks on real output in the short run, deploying a local projections model. The model i