天然气市场报告，2026年第一季度

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energyissues including oil, gas and coal supply anddemand, renewable energy technologies,electricity markets, energy efficiency, access toenergy, demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEA advocates SpainSwedenSwitzerland IEAMember countries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstonia TheEuropean Commissionalso participates in the work This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation of IEAAssociation countries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesia Abstract Natural gas markets continued to rebalance in 2025. Global LNGsupply returned to double-digit growth in the second half of the year,supported by the ramping-up of new LNG liquefaction projects in Global LNG supply growth is set to accelerate further in 2026,fostering a stronger increase in natural gas demand, which isexpected to reach a new all-time high. Although the LNG supplygrowth is reducing market tightness, geopolitical tensions andweather impacts may still cause price volatility. Close international This edition of the quarterlyGas Market Reportprovides a thoroughreview of market developments in 2025 and an outlook for 2026.The report includes a section dedicated to key policies undertaken Table of contents Executive summary........................................................................................5Key gas policies and market trends in 2025 ................................................12Gas market update.......................................................................................29 Executive summary The unfolding LNG wave is expected to drive stronger gas demand growth in 2026 Supply remained relatively tight in the first half of 2025.Whileglobal LNG supply increased by 4% (or 10 bcm) year-on-year (y-o-y)in the first half of 2025, this was partially offset by lower Russian andNorwegian piped gas deliveries to Europe. In addition, stronger 2025 was a transitional year for natural gas markets.Whilesupply fundamentals remained tight in the first half of the year,strong LNG production growth gradually eased market conditions starting from July. Following a relatively strong increase in 2024,global gas demand growth slowed markedlyin 2025 due to acombination of weaker industrial activity and relatively high spot Global LNG supply growth accelerated to 10% (or 28 bcm) y-o-yin the second half of 2025, which gradually eased marketconditions starting from July. TTF and Asian spot LNG prices fell14% and 17% respectively in H2 2025 compared with the same Global LNG supply growth is set to accelerate furtherin 2026 toits fastest pace since 2019. This is expected tofoster strongerglobal gas demand growth, primarily driven by China and Global LNG supply hit double-digit growth in the secondhalf of 2025, helping to ease market fundamentals Macroeconomic uncertainty and tighter supply in thefirst half of 2025 weighed on global gas demand growth Global LNG production increased by almost 7% (or 38 bcm) in2025, with around three-quarters of the growth concentrated in thesecond half of the year. The Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana Following a relatively strong increase in 2024,natural gas demandgrowth slowed significantly in 2025.Preliminary data indicatethat globalnatural gas consumption increased by less than 1%in 2025. In contrast with previous years, this growth was largely LNG, Corpus Christi Train 8&9, CP2 phase 1, Rio Grande LNGTrain 4 and Port Arthur phase 2. This new wave of projects isexpected to furthersolidify the United States’ position as the InOECD Europe, natural gas demand grew by 3%, partlysupported by stronger gas burn in the power sector amid lower windand hydro power output. InNorth America, natural gasconsumption increased by an estimated 1%, primarily driven bycolder winter temperatures.Asia’s natural gas demand in 2025slowed to its weakest pace since 2022 and remained close to its2024 levels. InChina, subdued gas demand combined with a Strong LNG project development was accompanied by anincrease in LNG contracting activity.More than 130 bcm peryear of LNG contracts were signed in 2025 – representing the The United States led a new wave of final investmentdecisions in LNG liquefaction capacity in 2025 Gas market liquidity continued to improve in 2025 whilegas market reforms gathered pace in Asia Despite macroeconomic uncertainty,final investment decisions(FIDs) in LNG liquefaction plants remained robust in 2025. Over90 bcm per year of LNG liquefaction capacity has been given the Natural gas trading volumes and hub liquidity reached new all-time highs across all key markets in 2025. In the United States,gas volumes traded onHenry Hubrose by 8%, while in theEuropean Union and the United Kingdomgas trade increased by The United States is leading the new investment cycle. Morethan 80 bcm per year o