2026年液化天然气（LNG）全球供需展望报告

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ICIS expects 2026 to be a broadly balanced year for the global LNG market, though seasonaldemand peaks may create localized shortfalls.Thepace of LNG uptake among developingcountrieswill be of particular importanceas spot prices continue to ease throughout the year. LNG supply Anew wave of LNG supply will continue in 2026, building on the momentum of the previousyear, followinga periodof slowor stagnant growth from 2020 to 2024. We forecast total LNG supply to reach 472mtonnes in 2026, up 31m tonnesor 7%year-on-year (yoy). Thatisa slightly larger increase than the 29m tonnes in 2025.We expect an even The big increase in 2025 came from Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant in the US, which builtup towards peak capacity of 27mtpa. Another US plant, Golden Pass, will help to drive theincreases in 2026, with the potential start-up of the first two of its planned three 6mtpa trains.Other contributions to 2026 supply growth include Eni’s 2.4mtpa Nguya FLNG plant offshoreCongo, the restart of the 3.7mtpa Darwin plant inNorthern Australia andthe 3.25mtpa The new wave of LNG accelerates in 2027 as Qatar brings on its 32mtpa North Field Eastexpansion project. This is dueto startbytheend of 2026 but will likely not make much impactwithinthis year. The projectramp-upcould potentially slip later into 2027.Our base casescenario does not include any disruptionto the Strait of Hormuz, but if that materialised, 20% LNG demandWe estimate unconstrained global LNG demand in 2026 at 466m tonnes, representing a 7.6%yoyincrease. Last year, our forecast accurately captured not only total demand but,more importantly, the timing of the growth acceleration in 2H 2025, driven by the arrival of In 2026, we expect the pattern to reverse: demand growth should front-load into the firsthalf of the year. We project robust quarter-on-quarter(qoq)growth of around 10% in 1H2026, led by the ramp-up of new liquefaction capacity, followed by a more moderate 6% After a sharp 14% contraction in Chinese LNG imports in 2025, we expect China to return togrowth, with imports rising to 75.6m tonnes in 2026, up 11%. Last year’s decline was driven by three factors: a prolonged property downturn, elevated spot LNG prices, and stronggrowth in pipeline gas imports. Of these, we expect only the property sector weakness to In contrast,Japan and SouthKorea’s LNGimportsareexpected to remainbroadly flat in2026,withSouth Korea seeing a slight decline.Nuclear availabilityremains the dominantdriver of seasonal LNG demand in both markets.The restart of TEPCO’s nuclearreactor inFebruary andthe commissioning ofKorea’sSaeul Unit 3inAugustare likely toweigh on LNG Europe is set to import record LNG volumes in 2026, with demand rising to about 143mtonnes,and the US shareof LNG supplyexceeding 60%.The ban on Russian LNG volumes isexpected to strengthen the presence of American LNG.EuropeanLNG imports aresupportedby higher gas consumption, partlydue to higherconsumptionamid cold weatherin early 2026. Pricedrivers Recent winter volatility in gas and LNG markets has been driven by a combination of revisedweather forecasts, speculative positioning on the TTF, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.ICIS forecasts front-month TTF prices to average below $10/MMBtu in 2026, with the ICIS EAX Geopolitical developments are expected to continue producing intermittent price volatility,generally on the upside, although any escalation of US tariffs could weigh on prices bydampening broader economic activity. We continue to monitor Iran closely: any increase inmilitary tensions with the US could support global gas, oil, and LNG markets due to supply Looking ahead, we believe that significant LNG transits through the Suez Canal are unlikely in2026, given persistent security risks and the extended shipping times associated with the Table of content 1)Global LNG Supplya.United States a.Qatarb.Australiac.Russiad.Asia Pacifice.Africaf.Europe, the Americas and UAE 2)Global LNG Demanda.China b.Japanc.South Koread.Taiwane.Southeast Asiaf.South Asiag.Middle Easth.Europei.Turkeyj.Americas 3)Conclusion GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY United States The US is the largest exporter of LNG in the world, and production from the country’s shalegas fields continues toset record levels. With theeffectiveclosure of the Red Sea as a routebetween Qatar and Europe, Europe has become increasingly reliant on US LNG. We expect acontinued climb inUSLNG production in 2026 as the new Golden Pass plant comes online,and as continued commissioning and debottlenecking takes place at existingplantssuch as Golden Pass LNG (18mtpa) is expected to deliver its first cargo in April 2026 from Train 1,following a cooldown cargo in December 2025. Despite past delays, production should rampup through the year, with output estimated at around 5m tonnes in 2026. Debottlenecking will be a major driver of US LNG supply growth in 2026. Plaquemines LNG isexpected to continue its strong ramp-up, with production