黄金作为战略资产：2026年版

Contents What makes gold a strategic asset?3 Risk/rewardprofile10 What makes gold a strategicasset? Gold has a key role as a strategic long-term investment and as a mainstay allocation ina well-diversified portfolio. Investors have been able to recognise much of gold’s value Gold is a highly liquid asset, which is no one’s liability,carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historicallypreserving its value over time. It also benefits fromdiverse sources of demand: as an investment, areserve asset, jewellery, and a technologycomponent. Combined, these characteristics make gold a clearcomplement to stocks and bonds and a welcome Moreover, the shift towards a greater integration ofenvironmental, social and governance (ESG) objectiveswithin investment strategies hasimportantimplications and we believegold can playa role insupporting these. Gold–from established investment •Delivering long-term returns (p.4)•Improving diversification (p.7) GLTER’s robust framework builds upon thecomposition and drivers of above-ground gold stocks.The model suggests thatgold’slong-run return closelymirrors global GDP and is, therefore, materially higherthan inflation. This also implies that gold should be Gold’s key attributes A long-term source of return Investors have long considered gold a beneficial assetduring periods of uncertainty. Yet, historically, it hasgenerated long-term positive returns in both goodand bad economic times. Its diverse sources ofdemand give gold a particular resilience and the Chart1: Gold has performed well over the past1,3,5, 10 and 20 years, despite the strong performance Annualised return over the past 1, 3, 5, 10and20 During periods of economic uncertainty it is thecounter-cyclical investment demand thatdrivesup the Looking back over morethan half a century since theUS gold standard collapsed in 1971, the price of goldin US dollars has increased by9% on anannualisedbasis–a performance comparable with that of equities The fact that gold has performed so well is nocoincidence. Our research shows thatthe gold priceover the long term is primarily driven by an economic Average annual net demand = 3,181tonnes* (approx. US$351bn) Beating inflation, combating deflation Gold has long been considered a hedge againstinflation and the data confirms this: since 1971 it hasoutpaced the US and world consumer price indices(CPI). Gold also protects investors against highinflation:in years when inflation was between 2%-5%, Gold in US dollars hasdelivereda compoundannual growth rateof9% Moreover, the diversity of its sources of demand helpto make gold a less volatile asset than some equity Chart2:Gold has been less volatile than manyequity indices, alternatives and commodities Gold nominal and real returns in US dollars as afunction of annual inflation* Ourresearchalso shows thatgold has the capacity todo well inperiods of deflation. Such periods arecharacterisedby low interest rates, reduced Chart5:Gold prices have tracked the expansion of Store of value Historically, major currencies were pegged to gold.That changed with the unravelling of the USgoldstandard in 1971 and the eventual collapse of theBretton Woods system. Since then, with fewexceptions, gold has significantly outperformed allmajor currencies and commodities. And although thisoutperformance was particularly marked immediately Fiat money can be printed in unlimited quantities tosupport monetary policy. This is clearly exemplified bythe quantitative easing (QE) measures implemented inthe aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and The environment catalysed by QE created optimalconditions for gold to perform well, tracking the rapid 1.Money supplyincludesM2from5countries: US, China, ECB, Japan, UK, all inUS$, indexed to Q32000.The above-ground stock of gold methodology canbe found here:How Much Gold Has Been Mined? | World Gold Council 2.This is also consistent with the results from GLTER, given the link betweenmoney supply and economic growth. Chart6:Gold becomes more negatively correlated Diversification that works Effective diversifierscan behard to find. Many assetsbecome increasingly correlated as market uncertaintyrises and volatility is more pronounced, driven in partby risk-on/risk-off investment decisions.As a result,many so-called diversifiers fail to protect portfolios Correlationbetween gold, US treasuries and US stocksin various environments of stocks’ performance* Further,as inflationhasincreasedoverrecent years,bondshavebecomemore positively correlated to Gold is different in that its negative correlation toequities and other risk assets increases as these assetssell off(Chart6). The GFC is a casein point. Equitiesand other risk assets tumbled in value, as did hedgefunds, real estate and most commodities, which werelong deemed portfolio diversifiers. Gold, by contrast,held its own and increased in price, rising 21% in US This robust performance is not surprising. With fewexceptions, gold has been