每 日早 盘 观 察 每日早盘观察 目录 金融衍生品 股指期货:做空动能释放................................................................................................................................3国债期货:波澜不惊........................................................................................................................................4 农产品 蛋白粕:供应仍有压力盘面小幅震荡..........................................................................................................5白糖:国际糖价震荡国内价格偏弱..............................................................................................................5油脂板块:油脂维持宽度震荡........................................................................................................................7玉米/玉米淀粉:北港现货回落,盘面底部震荡...........................................................................................8生猪:出栏压力好转现货震荡运行..............................................................................................................8花生:花生现货稳定,花生盘面窄幅震荡....................................................................................................9鸡蛋:临近节前备货,蛋价有所上涨..........................................................................................................10苹果:节前走货尚可,苹果价格坚挺..........................................................................................................11棉花-棉纱:基本面变化不大棉价有所支撑...............................................................................................12 黑色金属 钢材:需求边际转弱,钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡..................................................................................13双焦:基本面权重降低,资金扰动加大......................................................................................................13铁矿:市场预期反复,矿价震荡运行..........................................................................................................14铁合金:恐慌情绪释放后,仍可作为多头配置..........................................................................................15 有色金属 金银:金银震荡初显企稳,节前风控仍是主线..........................................................................................16铂钯:巨幅震荡逐步收敛风险释放后等待低多机会................................................................................17铜:恐慌情绪退坡,铜价企稳......................................................................................................................17氧化铝:震荡为主..........................................................................................................................................18电解铝:流动性收紧带动价格回调后震荡为主........................................................................................19铸造铝合金:连日回调后铝合金随板块震荡.............................................................................................20锌:关注市场情绪变化..................................................................................................................................20 铅:区间震荡..................................................................................................................................................21镍:情绪释放,测试支撑..............................................................................................................................22不锈钢:成本支撑,跟随镍价运行..............................................................................................................23工业硅:大厂减产落实但市场看空情绪浓厚..............................................................................................24多晶硅:低位震荡,短期关注现货成交情况..............................................................................................24碳酸锂:投机热度降温,节前谨慎操作......................................................................................................25锡:宏观情绪偏弱,锡价承压下跌..............................................................................................................26 航运板块 集运:SCFIS指数略超预期,关注美伊谈判................................................................................................27 能源化工 原油:地缘缓和&商品下挫...........................................................................................................................28沥青:近端成本跟随地缘波动,注意单边持仓风险..................................................................................28燃料油:现货窗口大量高价成交继续抬升高硫现货贴水..........................................................................29LPG:商品下挫&地缘溢价回落.....................................................................................................................30天然气:价格随全球资产大幅跳水..............................................................................................................31PX&PTA:聚酯需求季节性走弱,终端负荷局部下调.................................................................................32BZ&EB:供需平衡预期向好,苯乙烯阶段性去库.......................................................................................33乙二醇:春节前累库压力依然明显,乙二醇回调......................................................................................34短纤:短纤工厂按计划减停产......................................................................................................................34瓶片:加工差走强........................................................................................................................