为未来供能：商业、金融与政策如何加速清洁燃料市场

Fuelling the Future:How Business, Financeand Policy can Acceleratethe Clean Fuels Market W H I T EP A P E RJ A N U A R Y2 0 2 6 Contents Foreword3 Executive summary4 1 Clean fuels: unlocking value from the new energy system6 1.2 Unlocking societal value – global opportunities andregional realities9 2 Clean fuels landscape: scaling-up to the future12 3 Turning ambitions into projects: key solutions to unlockinvestment20 3.1 Investment barriers to project progress21 3.2 Three levers to unlock investment22 Call to action40 Appendix41 Contributors42 Endnotes43 Disclaimer Foreword Roberto BoccaHead, Centre forEnergy and Materials,World Economic Forum Espen MehlumHead, Energy, Centrefor Energy and Materials,World Economic Forum Wren KabirPartner, Bain & Company Per KarlssonPartner, Bain & Company The global energy system is changing fast, drivenby mounting energy security and climate risks,alongside accelerating innovation and investmentin energy. Yet changes are uneven, and shiftinggeopolitics and economic pressures havereinforced the importance of reliable, affordable andclean energy as the basis for competitiveness andshared prosperity. requires new forms of collaboration and innovationamong farmers, traders, producers, financiers andend-users, supported by durable policies and firmdemand signals. In response, the World Economic Forum, with thesupport of Bain & Company, has convened high-ambition businesses, financiers, policy-makers andcivil society through the Future of Clean Fuels initiativeto create better awareness around the market, itstrade-offs and solutions that can scale it up in theright way. Encouragingly, our research finds thatleaders who embrace partnerships and innovativeways to mitigate risk can realize financial returns. Against this backdrop, clean fuels are a practicallever for many regions and sectors to adapt andcreate economic opportunities. Clean fuel marketsare not new. In many countries, they alreadysupport industries and jobs, cut emissions, reducereliance on fossil fuels and help protect householdenergy costs. However, ambitions to scale upfurther have raised important concerns aroundpotential competition for scarce land and resources.The sector’s complex market dynamics make itessential to improve the understanding of where,and how, clean fuels can generate economic andsocietal value. This report complements that work. It highlightsthe important role of expanding clean fuels in ourfuture energy system and associated key marketdynamics; and it offers solutions for businessleaders and policy-makers to overcome barriershindering credible projects from materializing. Itbuilds on expert stakeholder consultations, as wellas techno-economic analysis. At the same time, despite growing ambitions, toofew projects reach final investment. Even whereproject economics are viable, market risks andcapital intensity differ from traditional energy assets,making it tough to ramp up investments. Progress We thank the members of the Future of CleanFuels community for their insights and valuablecontributions and look forward to advancing theclean fuels transition together. Executive summary Clean fuels are key to the energy future,yet progress is slow. Turning ambition intoprojects needs joint action by governments,producers, distributors and customers. Amid rising global energy demand and evolvinggeopolitical dynamics, clean fuels are a key pillar fora more secure, affordable and sustainable energysystem. Liquid and gaseous fuels supply 56% ofenergy use today and are especially important intransport and industry. Even as electrification growsfast, they will remain vital, supplying 40-55% ofenergy demand in 2050 across scenarios. Ambitions to realize this potential are growing,as demonstrated by the “Belém 4x” pledge toquadruple sustainable fuel production and use by2035, put forward by Italy, Japan, India and Brazilahead of COP30 and now endorsed by more than25 countries. The case for clean fuels is strong, but a realitycheck is needed to turn ambitions into investableprojects. At least $100 billion in annual investmentsare needed by 2030 to deliver on global clean fuelambitions. Current investments are ~$25 billion peryear, or just above 1% of total investment for cleanenergy. At this rate, with only 10% of announcednew capacity for 2030 past investment decision,the market will fall short of its targets. Clean fuels – mainly liquid or gaseous fuels, rangingfrom biofuels to hydrogen derivatives and lower-carbon fossil fuels – can offer multiple sources ofeconomic and societal value. They diversify energysupply and reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuelmarkets by using widely available resources suchas organic waste and renewable power. Biofuelsproduction has enabled several net fossil fuel-importing countries to reduce import dependenceby 5-15%. Substantial capital is available to close this gap,but companies struggle to realize adequatereturns. Uncertain and incongru