安永银行业晴雨表2026：（再）行动

(RE)ACTION Editorial31.Design of the study42.Core messages63.Market environment for banks94.Operating performance155.Structural change286.Priorities for 2026437.Sustainability498.Outlook579.Notes62 Contents Editorial Francesco de Gara Partner,Audit Financial Services Swiss banks can again look back on a successful financial year. However, the outlook is deteriorating.Uncertainty and mixed feelings reign, particularly in the short term. Revenue growth is becomingincreasingly difficult due to pressure on margins in the lending, borrowing, and investment business,as well as to the low-interest rate environment, which is not expected to fundamentally change in theforeseeable future. Marcel Zünd Partner,Head of Strategy & ExecutionFinancial Services At the same time, pressure to cut costs and make efficiency gains is increasing and being heightened bythe ever advancing integration and embedding of AI, not just in banking but also in society as a wholeand among customers of Swiss banks. Structural change is advancing ever faster, including in banking,and AI has already proved to be a catalyst. The good news is that, in this environment of an increasingly complex and uncertain landscape withstrategies and structures having to be adapted, Swiss banks are well positioned. They have a solidcapital, customer and business base, and have averted the possibility of any major credit risks ordefaults in the future thanks to their prudent risk management. This is also reflected in the optimisticlong-term sentiment of Swiss banks. Olaf ToepferPartner,Head of Banking & Capital Markets Furthermore, current growth forecasts for Switzerland still assume growth will be positive, althoughthey have been downgraded a number of times over the past year on account of sustained uncertainty. The crucial question in this environment will be whether to act or react. How will Swiss banks wantto handle this situation of uncertainty, mainly externally driven, at a time when complexity is increasingat an ever faster pace? Do they see this new environment as a threat, challenge or even strategicopportunity to make themselves and their business model fit for the future? Christine Mengers Assistant Director,Banking & Capital Markets The EY Banking Barometer 2026 has the answers to these and many other questions and shows howSwiss banks can act/react. As in previous years, we surveyed more than 100 institutions in Switzerlandand Liechtenstein. We hope you enjoy reading the results and look forward to lively discussions. Francesco de Gara, Marcel Zünd, Olaf Toepfer, Christine Mengers 1 ƒSurvey conducted by EY in November 2025ƒSurvey of 100 banks in Switzerland1and LiechtensteinƒThis is the 16th time since 2010 that the survey has been conducted Designof the study Operating profit solid but down1 3SME financing still profitable – cantonal banks expectincreased credit losses in the future 46% of the banks surveyed expect profits to fall for the current financial year(Previous year: 39%) 33% of the banks surveyed expect an increasing need for impairment losses andprovisions for SME loans in the next 1–2 years – unchanged from the previous year After several years of strong results, benefiting from high interest rates and healthy interest margins,banks appear less optimistic about 2025, i.e. the year just ended. Although the majority will continueto post solid results, they will be below the level of the previous two years. One thing of note is that the proportion of banks that expect an increase in provisions for creditlosses is unchanged from the previous year’s level and still below the long-term average. The fact thatexpectations are unchanged is surprising and contrasts with current macroeconomic developments. In particular, the key interest rate – which was cut to 0% in the course of the year – and the flat yieldcurve are dampening sentiment. Banks are once again facing an environment of low margins that offersonly limited opportunities for optimization both in the lending and deposit business. Cost discipline andefficiency gains will become increasingly important in the coming year, particularly as a result of AIbeing used more. However, the picture is to be seen in a more differentiated way when excluding all but the cantonalbanks. These are more exposed in SME financing and accordingly are more pessimistic. The majorityof cantonal banks expect credit losses to increase over time. This outlook is in line with currentexpectations given the increased economic uncertainty as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions,unpredictable US tariff policy, weaker macroeconomic indicators and the strength of the Swiss franc,which is increasingly putting a strain on the export-based sectors. 2Banks expect interest margins to stabilize, albeit atan unfavorable level Rising operating costs weighing most heavily onfuture income 65% of banks expect interest margins to stabilize or even rise (Previous year: 26%) Net interest incom