MIRAGE模型文档 版本2.0

MIRAGE Model DocumentationVersion 2.0 Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, HousseinGuimbard,Cristina Mitaritonna, Balthazar de Vaulchier & Yu Zheng Highlights MIRAGE is a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium model designed for economic policyanalysis, particularly focusing on trade and environmental policies. The model features advanced trade modeling capabilities with detailed treatment of trade costs, Armingtonspecifications, and analysis of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Enhanced energy sector representation includes detailed electricity generation modeling with renewableenergy integration considering base-load and peak-load, capital-energy bundles, and greenhouse gasemissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. The sequential dynamic framework enables long-term economic projections by combining total factorproductivity calibration with macroeconomic forecasts from the MaGE model for consistent policyscenario analysis. Abstract MIRAGE is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, initially devoted to tradepolicy analysis and more recently applied to long-term growth and environmental issues. It incorporates energy,carbon pricing, imperfect competition, and rigid investment allocation, in a sequential dynamic setup where installedcapital is assumed to be immobile. The model provides trade analysis with detailed treatment of trade costs andArmington specifications, drawing upon a detailed measure of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database.Production features nested CES functions with capital-energy bundles under both perfect and imperfect competitionframeworks, while final demand follows a LES-CES utility function. The sequential dynamic framework enables long-term simulations by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic projections from the MaGEmodel. The most recent version offers significant improvements in electricity sector modeling with renewable energyrepresentation, base-load and peak-load dinstinctions, and detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting withcarbon market mechanisms. This documentation provides complete technical specifications, calibration procedures,and implementation guidelines for researchers and policymakers using MIRAGE for economic policy analysis. Keywords Computable General Equilibrium, Trade Policy, Environnemental Policy. JEL C68, F1, Q54, Q56, Q40, Q42. Working Paper Miragemodel documentationVersion 2.0∗ Antoine Bouët1, Lionel Fontagné2, Christophe Gouel3,1, HousseinGuimbard1, Cristina Mitaritonna1, Balthazar de Vaulchier1, and Yu Zheng1 1CEPII, 20 avenue de Ségur, 75007, Paris, France2Paris School of Economics, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014, Paris, France3Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Paris-Saclay Applied Economics, 91120,Palaiseau, France Contents Model historyiv 1Introduction1 2Model structure 2.1Final demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.2Supply and intermediate demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32.3Power supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92.4Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112.5Imperfect competition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142.6International transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172.7Capital and investment dynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .192.8Macroeconomic closure and revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .212.9Energy, GHG emissions, and mitigation policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 25 3Data 3.1Standard database. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .253.2Tariff and non-tariff measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .253.3Production function elasticities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .263.4Calibration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 4Baseline28 4.1Macroeconomic projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .294.2Total factor productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .314.3Population, labor, and current account. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .324.4Energy and GHG emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .324.5Natural resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 AList of sets, parameters, and variables35 A.1Notations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35A.2Parameters definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35A.3Variable definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 BList of equations B.1Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42B.2Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42B.3Power supply. . . . . . . . . .