制造和贸易模型文档2026

Manufacturingand Trade ModelDocumentation 2026 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAAssociationcountries: IEAMembercountries: ArgentinaChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineViet Nam AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Table of contents Modelling methodology ........................................................................................................... 4Maritime shipping routes....................................................................................................... 28Data sources ......................................................................................................................... 29Annex A: Abbreviations and acronyms............................................................................... 34Annex B: References ............................................................................................................. 35 Modelling methodology The IEA’s Manufacturing and Trade (MaT) Model was first developed for the 2024editionof Energy Technology Perspectives(ETP)(IEA,2024a)to producescenario projections of manufacturing and trade across six key clean energytechnology supply chains – for solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, electriccars, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps. It is part of the IEA’s broadermodelling framework and is closely linked to the Global Energy and Climate Model(GEC) (IEA, 2025a) as it draws on the same modelling scenarios, each of whichis built on a different set of underlying assumptions about how the energy systemmight evolve over time. This document contains the modelling framework, inputs,assumptions, technical details and data sources for the MaT Model. Scope For the purposes ofETP-2026, the following boundaries are considered in themodelling and analysis for clean energy technologies and components within eachmanufacturing supply chain in scope: Solar PVincludes solar modules, solar cells, wafers and polysilicon, for which allvalues are expressed in direct current (DC) terms. It does not include elementssuch as backsheets, encapsulants or any balance of system components, suchas inverters and racking. Metallurgical-grade silicon is out of scope. Windincludes wind nacelles, blades and towers for both onshore and offshorewind facilities. Production costs for onshore and offshore wind are modelledseparately (differentiating, for example, by capital and investment costs) but ademand-weighted aggregate cost is used for output. Manufacturing of nacellesincludes only assembly and not the manufacturing of the upstream componentssuch as the drive train and generator. Other wind components, such as thefoundation, yaw bearing, hub and power cables, are assumed to be inputs to theproduction process. References to wind energy installation costs or turbine pricingby manufacturers include these products. Electric carsinclude battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electricvehicles (PHEV) that belong to the passenger light-duty vehicles category, suchas cars and pick-up trucks. Batteriesinclude the lithium-ion battery cells1and any individual parts that areused to compose a battery cell for use in electric vehicles2or battery energystoragesystems.Among battery components,only cathodes and anodes(referring to their active material unless stated otherwise) are modelled explicitly,and other inputs such as the electrolyte, separator and current collectors areconsidered only in terms of their cost as inputs into the production process.Cathode and anode chemistry is not considered explicitly, but chemistry choice isconsidered exogenously during model calibration. A negative (anode) to positive(cathode) electrode ratio of 1.05 is assumed for the final cells, which implies theneed for 5% more anode capacity than cathode capacity per cell. Electrolysersinclude all major electrolyser technologies (including alkaline,proton exchange membrane, solid oxide electrolysis and others) when displayedin manufacturing capacity and output figur