2026年的国会、黄金舰队和造船工业基地

Presentation at the 38th National Symposium of theSurface Navy Association Eric J. LabsNational Security Division For more information about the symposium, seehttps://surfacewarfare.org/events/national-symposium. Shipbuilding Requests and Appropriations, 2015 to 2025 The Congress hasconsistently appropriatedmore funds forshipbuilding thanAdministrations haverequested. Congressional Action on Shipbuilding for Fiscal Year 2026 Potential Cost of a Lead-Ship BBG-1, Using Cost-by-WeightHistorical Analogues, If the Ship Was Ordered Today Billions of 2025 dollars BBG-1 displacement in long tons The average cost of follow-on ships could range from $9 billion to $13 billion, depending ondisplacement, program size, ship analogue, and other factors. Potential Cost of a Lead-Ship BBG-1, Using Cost-by-WeightHistorical Analogues, If the Ship Was Ordered in 2030* Billions of 2025 dollars The average cost of follow-on ships could range from $10 billion to $15 billion, depending on displacement,program size, ship analogue, and other factors. Factors That Could Decrease or Increase Costs of aGuided Missile Battleship Increase Decrease ▪Modern shipbuilding technologies and techniques couldmake the ship easier to build compared with analogousships built in the past. ▪Weaknesses in the shipbuilding industrial base remain.Shipyards continue to suffer from an insufficient quantityof skilled labor, relatively inexperienced labor forces,and supply chain challenges. ▪A larger ship could signify a simpler design and thus aship that is easier to build. ▪If the BBG-1 has more survivability features—greatercompartmentalization or internal structure, forexample—than the Navy's current surface combatants,costs could increase. ▪An armored ship could be cheaper to build per unit ofweight. (How much armor will the BBG-1 have?) ▪The ship could carry more weapons relative to its sizeand thus could cost less per unit of weight compared withanalogous ships built in the past. ▪Incorporating all the new weapons, sensors, and othercapabilities could increase costs per unit of weight. ▪A larger ship could lead to more capabilities’ beingadded to the ship, which could then increase costs. ▪A larger design margin could signify a ship that is easierto build. (How much design margin will the BBG-1 have?) ▪Lightship displacement could be greater than estimated. ▪Lightship displacement could be less than estimated. Amount of Tonnage That Would Be Constructed Underthe Navy’s 2025 Plan Thousands of tons The demands thatthe 2025 planwould place on thenation’s shipyardswould be greaterthan those theyhave faced overthe past decade. Total Employment in the Shipbuilding and Boatbuilding Industry Employment in theshipbuilding andboatbuilding industry hasnot grown since 1990.