2026年贸易：障碍、桥梁与平衡

EconomicsGlobal Barriers, bridges and balance ◆US tariff policies, critical mineral resourcing and tradeprotectionism could create barriers… ◆…while new trade deals and the AI boom could evolve furtheras bridges…◆Strategic balance between the two could be the key tonavigate global trade in this volatile environment Maitreyi DasGlobal EconomistHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedmaitreyi.das@hsbc.co.in+91 80 6737 3155 Bethan EllisGlobal EconomistHSBC Bank plcbethan.ellis@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6714 Global trade enters 2026 at a pivotal juncture Prachi MathurAssociateBangalore After a turbulent,butunexpectedlyresilient 2025, the outlook for trade in 2026 couldagainbe shaped less by cyclical demand, and more by policy decisions, geopolitics, andstructuralshifts.The recent renewed US tariff threat tied to Greenland (see:GreenlandTariff Threat, 18 January 2026), although put on hold for now, has already put uncertaintyback onthetable. The defining feature of last year was the sharp escalation in US trade policy uncertainty.Rapidly evolving tariff measures triggered widespread frontloading ofUSimports,followed by payback, and some permanent shifts in trade flows. Sector-specific tariffsunder Section 232 are expected to remain a focal point of US trade policy in 2026. Heightened demand for critical minerals is bringing resourcingtocentre stage as well.Chinaplays asignificant role inglobalsupply chains–made particularly apparent by anescalation in US-China trade relations back in October, after China announced additionalexport controls on critical minerals. Though thesecurbswere later suspended, variousregions are now accelerating efforts to diversify resourcing. One partial sideeffectof exporters’reduced access to the US markethas been arenewed impetus globally to conclude new bilateral trade deals.That said,additionalprotectionist measuresoutside the US havealsobeenrisingin response toChineseovercapacity–pushing some economies to build walls to shield against import overflow. Against this geopolitical backdrop,as we argued in our latestGlobal EconomicsQuarterly(5 January 2025),the entireAI technologyecosystemhas been drivingglobal trade resilience. AIcapexisn’t showing signs of a slowdown (yet)–butitsoutsized role in global trade flows heightens both upside and downsiderisksfor 2026. If 2025 was the year of implementation, 2026 could be when some of the permanentshifts in trade flows (and their consequences) become moreapparent.In our outlook, wediscussfive key themesthat look set to shape global trade in 2026: 1.Fallout fromUS tariffs(pg. 5)2.Critical minerals resourcing (pg.10)3.Acceleration intrade deals and partnerships (pg.11)4.Protectionism outside of the US (pg. 15)5.AI-related and digital trade (pg. 16) This is our latest report on the Trade Flows theme. If you want to subscribe toany of our nine big themes,click here. Issuer of report:HSBC Securities andCapitalMarkets (India) Private Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Trade in 2026 Key themes shaping our outlook for trade New trade deals andpartnerships US tariff policies Trade protectionism Critical mineralresourcing AI-related and digitalservices tradeAI-related and digitaltrade have boomed,especially from EMslike Türkiye and India,providing a bright spotfor trade growth Sector-specific tariffsunder Section 232could influence bilateraldeals, legal andenforcement challengesto IEEPA tariffs poseuncertainty, whilepayback could distortsome trade flows But the reduced accessto US market andChinese overcapacityis bringing up tradeprotectionist measuresto keep trade inflows incheck by variouseconomies Heightened demand forcritical minerals bringingconcentrated supplychains in focus,especially China’sdominance, while theglobal efforts to diversifycould take long Reduced access to theUS market acceleratingin bridging trade withnumerous new tradedeals signed or initiatedbetween ex-US world US imports have fallen back sharply since thefrontloading surged in early 2025 Global export volume growth is likely to slowin 2026, except in CEEME A & LatAm Export volume growth, % per year (GDP basis)* US goods imports (USDbn) New trade deals could help support trade – an offset to trade-protectionist trends Bilateral exports between new trade deal partners (YTD 2025, USDbn)* Trade in 2026 ◆UStariff policies, critical mineral resourcing and trade protectionismcould create barriers…◆…while new trade deals and the AI boomcould evolve further asbridges…◆Strategic balance between the twocould be the key to navigateglobal trade in this volatile environment Barriers, bridges,and balance Trade was certainly at the forefront of economic discussions in 2025 and is unlikely to fade fromfocus in 2026. Developments already visible on the ground–as well as those that may beforthcoming–suggest that trade dynamics will remain volatile, and policy driven. What could drive global trade in 20