2025年年中煤炭报告

INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAAssociationcountries: IEAMembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Coal’s role in the global energy system today remains significant. Over the pastdecade, the world’s demand for coal has stayed relatively stable, apart from atemporarydrop during the Covid-19 pandemic and the rapid rebound thatfollowed. Today, global coal consumption, power generation, production and tradeare all at record levels. In many countries, coal continues to be the leading source of electricity generation,helping to meet growing energy needs. These trends carry major implications forenergy security, affordability and sustainability, especially as coal remains thesingle largest contributor to energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. While the large majority of the world’s coal use is concentrated in Asia, particularlyChina, consumption in Europe and North America remains considerable. Coal’sinfluence therefore remains global in both energy and climate discussions. The International Energy Agency’s 2025Coal Mid-Year Updatereviews the latesttrends in coal demand, production, trade and prices. It includes preliminary datafor the first half of 2025 and provides updated forecasts for 2025 and 2026,grounded in recent market developments and economic conditions. Overview Global coal demand grew by 1.5% in 2024, reaching anall-time high Global coal demand rose by 1.5% in 2024 to reach 8.79 billion tonnes (Bt), a newrecord. The growth was the slowest annual rate since the Covid-19 crisis in 2020caused coal demand to decline. The post-Covid economic recovery and highnatural gas prices have driven a sharp rise in global coal demand in recent years,but the growth has slowed year-on-year since 2021. Coal demand grew by 7.7%in 2021, 4.4% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023. Despite slowing demand growth on anannual basis, the cumulative increase since 2020 amounts to more than 16%. Coal use for power generation, the main driver of global coal demand, reached itshighest recorded level at 10 766 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024. Demand formetallurgical coal for iron and steel production, the largest source of non-power-related coal consumption, has been more stable. In 2024, metallurgical coal usedecreased by 0.8%. China1plays a unique role in global coal markets. It accounts for 56% of globalcoal consumption – almost 30% more than the rest of the world combined. One ofevery three tonnes of coal consumed globally is used in Chinese power plants,making China and its power sector the largest single driver of global coal demand. In 2025, global coal demand is set to remain around 2024levels In the first half of 2025, global coal demand is estimated to have decreasedslightly, by less than 1%, amid fluctuating trends across different regions. In China,weaker electricity demand growth and a surge in power output from renewablescaused a decline in coal power generation. The small decline in China’s overallcoal demand came despite growth in some sectors like chemicals. In India,expansion of wind and solar and an early monsoon resulting in stronger electricitygeneration from hydropower, and weaker electricity demand growth in the first halfof 2025, pushed coal power generation – and overall coal demand – into declinefrom the high consumption levels seen in the same period a year earlier. Bycontrast, coal demand in the United States is estimated to have increased by 10%in the first half of 2025, driven by strong electricity demand and higher natural gasprices, which prompted some electricity generation to shift from gas to coal. In the European Union, coal demand grew in the first half of 2025 driven by the electricitysector, as a result of low wind and hydro output and higher gas prices. Despite such trends in the first half of the year, our full-year forecast for global coaldemand in 2025 is little changed from the one published in our annualCoal 2024report i