2025年并购市场年中报告：穿越迷雾，勇往直前

What lessons from recent shocks apply to today’schallenging M&A environment? By Dale Stafford, Kai Grass, Suzanne Kumar, and David Harding M&A Midyear R eport 2025: Separating the Signal from the Noise At a Glance Some battle-hardened executives are drawing from past crises to make bold, strategic movesdespite high interest rates, regulatory hurdles, and AI disruption. A new wave of deals is focused on building future-proof portfolios—through scale, capabilityexpansion, and strategic divestitures. The best companies are determining how second- and third-order impacts of tariffs could altertheir portfolios, M&A roadmaps, and deal pipelines. There’s a good reason why executives feel embattled. The past five years have delivered blow after blow totheir business and M&A strategy. The first big shock came when the Covid-19 pandemic jolted companiesinto inaction, sending 2020 M&A deal values and volumes plunging to the lowest levels in decades. Thenext shock occurred two years later in the form of soaring interest rates that caused executives to reassessdeal economics, slowing activity almost to pandemic lows. And just when many were regaining theirfooting and reviving M&A plans, here come US tariffs—a third tremor with the potential to upend theconfidence and clarity that underpin the market for mergers and acquisitions as bets on long-term growthand profits(see Figure 1). But this shock will be different. We’re already seeing evidence that some companies are not allowing tariffs(and the changed economic world order they represent) to derail M&A activity. One sign is that while dealvalue and volume dropped when the tariff era began in April, deal value bounced back in May. That meansthe impact of the US tariff announcements have been more muted than other recent shocks(see Figure 2).This could partly reflect late-stage deals announced in May. However, we feel that there’s a bigger reasonand an important trend to watch: Some battle-hardened executives are learning how to live with the shocksand are becoming more strategic in using the disruption to their benefit. They have strengthened balancesheets, are running lean on cost, and building resiliency. As a result, they can respond more nimbly tostrategic challenges and maintain a longer-term view on their M&A agenda. That’s not to suggest it’s an easy time for dealmakers. As they navigate unpredictable swings in tariff policyand financial markets, they also need to get ahead of the accelerating changes created by disruptivetechnologies such as generative AI. They face increasing pressure to allocate capital to these and other newlycritical capabilities—possibly at the expense of investments in M&A. Interest rates are likely to remainrelatively high in the US amid inflationary pressures, even as the European Central Bank continues withits steady progress of rate cuts. Meanwhile, regulatory hurdles remain high across markets. Notably, theTrump administration has sustained antitrust scrutiny, even as it brings back merger remedies andstreamlined processes. These disparate dynamics are reflected in the strategic M&A market, which has grown 11% year over yearthrough May of 2025. The impact of tariffs is varied, depending on factors such as supply chain composition M&A Midyear R eport 2025: Separating the Signal from the Noise Monthly M&A deal value and end markets. Industrial M&A has been hit hard, with a 15% drop in value as the sector regroups, andtech has rebounded as companies across industries snap up generative AI assets(see Figure 3). In such a challenging environment, it takes unique conviction and clarity to chart a multiyear strategy andproactively pursue M&A. Yet that’s just what veteran executives are showing us they can do. They areseparating the signal from the noise—and plowing ahead. So, what lessons from recent shocks are executives applying today? Four learnings stand out. Companies that leverage strength to continue M&A outperform those who stand still.The globalfinancial crisis of 2008 (and its 30% decline in median valuations) led to some bold dealmaking thatdramatically paid off for companies such as Kraft, with its Cadbury acquisition, and Stanley, with itspurchase of Black and Decker. Similarly, the first half of 2025 showed us that some companies arepursuing opportunistic and strategically solid (or better) deals at lower valuations than this time last year.For example, Salesforce returned to AI-enabled data management company Informatica with an $8billion offer that was about 27% lower than the amount discussed in talks last year. Tellingly, CEO Marc M&A Midyear R eport 2025: Separating the Signal from the Noise Benioff noted that Salesforce had been tracking Informatica for nearly 20 years. Indeed, executives thathave a clear M&A roadmap grounded in multiyear strategy will be best positioned to see past near-termvolatility and identify unique opportunities to make transformative moves. Disruption creates demand for new capa