流动秀：牛市风险：配置、亚洲与批准
Bull Risks: Allocation, Asia & Approval Scores on the Doors: bitcoin 11.3%, oil 8.0%, gold 6.8%, commods 5.7%, global stocks3.9%, US stocks 1.2%, US$ 0.7%, HY bonds 0.3%, IG 0.3%, govt bonds -0.1% YTD. 15 January 2026 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“When the market goes up, they should lower rates”Trump on the Fed. Zeitgeist:“Only three certainties are death, taxes, and new highs in Japanese banks.” Tale of the Tape: Japan yen weakest vs. China renminbi since 1992 (Chart 6); biggestrisk to max bull Q1 consensus = rapid appreciation of super-weak yen, Korea won,Taiwan dollar (BoJ hike, US QE, Japan-China geopolitics, bad hedging…) triggers globalliquidity tightening as Asia capital outflows into US/EU/EM assets to recycle $1.2tn Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Price is Right:“new world order = new world bull”as Trump drives global fiscalexcess; stay long international stocks (Chart 3) as US exceptionalism positions rotate toglobal rebalancing (note $1.6tn US equity inflow in 2020s vs. just $0.4tn to global funds–Chart 4); China our favorite long as end of deflation catalyst for Japan & Europe bull Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087 Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: Tehran stock exchange up 65% since Aug (Chart 2) but stableSaudi & Dubai markets (Chart 8) say“no revolution”imminent…good news as Iran 5%of global oil supply, 12% of oil reserves, and in 12 months after last Iran revolution (Jan1979 Shah overthrow) oil price up 95%, gold price up 244%, UST bond yields up 149bps. Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any other More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets andthe financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Weekly Flows: $71.1bn to stocks, $23.4bn to bonds, $2.8bn to gold, $0.7bn to crypto, Flows to Know: •Stocks: big $71.1bn inflow led by $36.5bn to US & $16.8bn to EM; •China: $8.5bn inflow, 10thhighest since data started in 2002;•Financials: $3.3bn inflow = largest since Oct’25; •Tech: $5.4bn inflow, reversing 3 weeks of outflows; •EM debt: $2.2bn outflow (biggest 2-week outflow since May’22); •Bank loans: $1.4bn inflow, biggest since Jul’25. BofA Private Clients: $4.4tn AUM…64.5% stocks (top of 39-65% historic range),17.5% bonds (bottom of 17-34% range), 10.7% cash (bottom of 10-21% range); under-the-hood allocation to Magnificent 7 is 16% of AUM, International stocks 5%, Treasuries4%, gold 0.6%; private client stock holdings rose 13% in '25 driven by price rather thanshare count (up <1%); past 4 weeks private clients buying Muni bonds, EM debt & REITETFs, selling Japan, bank loan & low volatility ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator:up to 9.3 from 9.0, highest since Feb'18 (Chart 22) onstrong global stock index breadth (89% ACWI indices trading >50 & 200dma), uber-bullish FMS positioning (record low 3.3% cash level), robust credit market technicals;past 24 years average 3-month return when B&B Indicator >9.3…ACWI flat, S&P500 - 1%; "old"1B&B Indicator up to 7.5 from 7.2 (highest since Feb'21)…increase risk hedgesas bull positioning extreme. BofA Fund Managers Survey: Jan FMS to be released on 20th;Dec FMS (see report) showed global investor sentiment most bullish in past 4 years; Jan FMS showing furtherdrop in record low 3.3% cash allocation, equity allocation rising from net 42% OW to>50% OW (i.e. +1SD vs. history), big jump in growth expectations from net 18% to>40% = max bull = case for hedge stock, credit, commodities via outright shorts grows. New Gold Bull: new world order = new gold bull; short-term gold & especially silver voverbought short-term (why bitcoin playing catch-up)…silver 104% above 200-daymoving average = most overbought since 1980 - Chart 9); but gold best perf
