乌干达经济更新，2025年12月：通过农业工业化培育繁荣（英）

CultivatingProsperity through December UGANDAEconomic Update 26THEDITION Cultivating Prosperity through Agro-Industrialization December 2025 © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/International Development AssociationThe World Bank Group1818 H Street NW This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, so this workmay be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes only where full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, TheWorld Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. FAX: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org Cover photos courtesy of: (top) Jen Watson/Shutterstock; (center left) BearFotos/Shutterstock; (center right) DSLucas/Shutterstock; and (bottom) MehmetO/Shutterstock. Design/Layout: The Word Express, Inc. List of Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viForeword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiiAcknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ixExecutive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x 1.Recent Economic Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1.Regional economic developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.2.Uganda experienced broad-based growth in FY25. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.3.Uganda’s external position improved, supported by commodity exportsand financial inflows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41.4.Higher debt service and a surge in recurrent spending deepened 2.Economic Outlook, Risks and Development Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132.1.Growth is expected to remain robust in FY26 and FY27, andelevated twin deficitstonarrow as oil production commences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .132.2.Uganda’s outlook is subject to downside risks, from both domestic and Part 2. Cultivating Prosperity Through Agro-Industrialization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 1.Where Uganda’s Agriculture Stands: The Current Context for Cultivating Future Prosperity. . . . . .191.1.Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.3.Uganda’s performance gap compared to regional peers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .202.Why Uganda’s Agriculture Sector Lags: Four Root Causes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .232.1.Weak foundations in primary agricultural production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .232.2.Government and institutional weaknesses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .262.3.Financing and connectivity gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262.4.Climate vulnerability amplifies all other constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283.Foundational Enablers and Strategic Pathways for Agro-Industrial Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . 303.1.Strengthening foundations and infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .303.2.Improving the policy and enabling environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .323.3.Mobilizing private capital and market linkages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344.The Way Forward: Recommendations for Agro-Industrial Transformation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .364.1.Drive productivity, resilience, and intensification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .364.2.Build the physical and institutional foundations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .