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乌干达人力资本发展和增长审查，2025年7月（英）

公用事业 2025-08-04 世界银行 Dawn

核心观点

乌干达拥有年轻且快速增长的人口，这为其带来了实现经济转型和发展的历史性机遇。然而，乌干达的人力资本发展水平仍然较低，这限制了其从人口红利中获益并实现发展目标的潜力。报告分析了乌干达人力资本发展的现状、挑战和机遇，并提出了四个跨部门“变革者”建议，以加速人力资本发展。

人力资本发展现状

成就：乌干达在近年来的人力资本发展方面取得了显著进展，例如，小学入学率大幅提高，预期寿命显著增长，母婴死亡率、五岁以下儿童死亡率和传染病发病率显著下降。
挑战：尽管取得了进展，但乌干达仍然面临着许多挑战，包括教育质量低下、营养不良、非传染性疾病负担加重、公共医疗系统效率低下、社会保护覆盖范围有限以及劳动力市场对人力资本利用不足。

关键数据

人力资本指数（HCI）：乌干达的HCI为0.39，低于大多数可比国家，表明其人力资本潜力尚未得到充分发挥。
教育：乌干达的公共教育支出占GDP的比重仅为2.7%，远低于其东非邻国的平均水平。教育支出不仅低，而且效率低下，导致学习成果不佳。
健康：乌干达在健康和营养方面取得了进展，但仍然面临着高疾病负担。虽然获得基本医疗服务的覆盖范围和质量有所提高，但仍然存在差距和不平等现象。
社会保护：乌干达的社会保护支出占GDP的比重仅为0.6%，远低于其他国家。社会保护项目覆盖范围有限，难以有效应对贫困和脆弱性。
就业：乌干达的人力资本利用率低，超过一半的年轻人在劳动力市场中未得到充分利用。技能短缺、劳动力市场不正规和低生产力是制约人力资本利用的主要因素。

研究结论

加速人力资本发展：乌干达需要加大对教育、健康和社会保护的投资，以提高人力资本发展水平。
提高人力资本利用率：乌干达需要制定更有效的劳动力市场政策，以提高人力资本利用率，特别是青年和女性的利用率。
促进经济转型：乌干达需要加快经济转型，从农业为主的经济转向更多元化的工业和服务业，以创造更多高质量的就业机会。

“变革者”建议

优先实施加速干预措施：选择一组具有最高短期影响和成功实施可能性的干预措施，并集中资源和精力进行重点投入。
逐步增加人力资本支出：将人力资本支出占GDP的比重提高到2040年的约10%。
提高人力资本项目的效率：通过数据系统升级、绩效激励、社区动员和法规标准执行，提高人力资本项目的效率。
改善跨部门和国际间合作的促进环境：加强各级人力资本协调机构的建设，建立综合人力资本绩效管理系统，并加强跨部门投资。

July 2025 ©2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/International Development AssociationThe World Bank Group1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of TheWorld Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. CitationWorld Bank, Ministry of Education and Sports, and Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. 2025. The Uganda Human Capital Development and Growth Review Report: Policy Brief. Washington, DC: World Bank. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, so this workmay be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, TheWorld Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA;FAX: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Photo credits: The World Bank GroupDesign: Print Innovations and Publishers LtdPrinting: New Vision Printing & Publishing Co. Ltd Table of Contents Lists of Boxes, Tables, and Figures .....................................................................................................................................................................................................ivList of Acronyms............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................viiForeword.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................viiiAcknowledgements..............................................................................................................................................................................................................ixExecutiveSummary....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................xiHuman Capital Development: Overall Progress and Challenges...............................................................................................................................xiiProgress and Challenges Across the Specific Human Capital Sub Programs...................................................................................................xiiiGame Changers...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................xvi 1.TheStateandPotentialTrajectoryofUganda’sHumanCapital....................................................................................1 The demographic dividend is a historic opportunity for accelerating socio-economictransformation in Uganda...........................................................................................................................................................................................................1Two scenarios for human capital in Uganda: Business-as-usual or Vision 2040 acceleration.....................................................5Program-based budgeting, decentralization, regional integration, and refugee integration cansupport human capital development...............................................................................................................................................................................8A Human Capital Approach to Development: Lessons from International Experience................................................................11Human capital investment strengthens resilience and social cohesion............................................................................................13Overview of this report..........................................................................................................................................................................................................15 2.EducationforEconomicGrowth:Acatalystforhumancapitalandinnovation.....................

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