2025年第四季度PitchBook分析师笔记：电子商务的人工智能溢价

PitchBook Data, Inc. EMERGING TECH RESEARCHE-Commerce’s AI Premium Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President ofResearch and Market IntelligencePaul CondraGlobal Head of PrivateMarkets ResearchJames UlanDirector of EmergingTechnology Research AI rings up higher valuations PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most Institutional Research Group Analysis Eric BellomoSenior Research Analyst,E-commerce & Gaming Key takeaways Valuation landscape DataBen Riccio •AI-enabled valuation premium:Median pre-money valuation for AI-enablede-commerce SaaS startups reached $82 million YTD, a 22.3% premium over non-AI peers at $67 million. The delta was wider for fiscal year 2024, despite loweroverall valuations, as AI-enabled platforms reached an 86.1% premium, with pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com PublishingDesigned byAdriana Hansen Published on December 23, 2025 •Fundraising concentration:ThePitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitornotes fundraising is increasingly concentrated within venture’s elite startups, withsub-$5 million deals declining as a share of activity across the asset class.E-commerce technology lacks the megadeal activity flowing into Waymo ($5.6billion) or Databricks ($1 billion), exposing the sector to weaker small dealvolume. However, highly visible platforms a degree removed from Waymo/ Contents Key takeaways1AI-enabled e-commerce ecosystemmarket map3VC activity5Methodology22 Stage-level valuation trends •AI premium by stage:Although valuations are reconverging in 2025 afterdiverging in 2024, stage-level trajectories are more nuanced. The AI premiumis most pronounced at the seed stage (+43.9%), followed by the early stage(+30.6%) and late stage (+24.6%). Early-stage AI valuations face downward AI disruptors in e-commerce are earlier in their life cycles, but the consistentpremium across stages suggests investors view commerce as an adoptiontailwind consistent with previous platform shifts (personal computing, Deal volume and check size dynamics •AI share of fundraises:Since 2021, 34.7% of e-commerce SaaS fundraiseswent to AI-enabled platforms, roughly in line with the 32.8% share in •Deal size differential:AI-enabled e-commerce platforms are also securing largercheck sizes across stages, led by a 25% lift at the seed stage, a 21.1% increaseat the early stage, and a 14% increase at the late stage. Increasing deal sizes Market penetration and segment activity •AI adoption rate:AI-enabled commerce companies have raised $4.6 billion inVC across 185 deals through Q3, 48.2% of total deal value and 46.7% of dealcount. These totals represent modest YoY contractions of 2.1% and 11.5% versus •Prepurchase leadership:The prepurchase segment leads all categories in e-commerce AI platform count at 45%. As ChatGPT and Perplexity reshapeproduct discovery, investor interest has shifted to LLM-based search andgenerative engine optimization/app store optimization visibility. Subsegmentleaders include conversational commerce (70%), search (64%), andpersonalization (50%), reflecting demand for faster asset generation, n-of- •Exit concentration:In 2025, AI-enabled e-commerce companies generated$16.4 billion in disclosed exit value across 25 deals, although $14.9 billion camefrom Klarna’s IPO. Excluding Klarna, AI exits totaled $1.5 billion, below the $2 billion across 43 deals recorded for non-AI platforms. This underperforms the$4.4 billion in combined VC/PE exit value in 2024, suggesting it is premature todraw firm conclusions about exit probabilities beyond heightened expectations active secondary markets, with those shares trading at a median discountof 0.8% and an average discount of 14.5% to their last disclosed valuation, according to Caplight.1This compares to increases of +20.7% and 10.5%,respectively, against a larger basket of the highest-valued SaaS platforms, Strategic and M&A trends •Acquisition momentum:AI-related M&A activity has already surpassed 2024 volume as of Q3 2025, reaching $2 billion across 34 deals. AI remains a centraltheme across strategic acquisitions and incumbents emerging as strategicacquirers, such as OpenAI’s $1.1 billion acquisition of Statsig or Wix’s acquisition VC activity Methodology This report examines how AI is affecting deal activity across the US e-commercelandscape. To surface meaningful insights, we constructed two distinct datasets:one comprising AI-enabled e-commerce companies and another for non-AI Instead, companies were classified as AI-enabled based on a set of criteria, •Offer AI as a core product or platform feature•Leverage AI in meaningful ways across operations•Have acquired another company with an AI-native product or infrastructure•Have made strategic hires in AI & machine learning (ML) domains PitchBook, a Morningstar company