2026年第一季度外汇策略展望

Shahab JalinoosStrategistshahab.jalinoos@ubs.com+1-212-882-5532 Alvise MarinoStrategistalvise.marino@ubs.com+1-212-713 5000 Vassili SerebriakovStrategistvassili.serebriakov@ubs.com+1-212-713 1850 Benjamin JarrettStrategistbenjamin.jarrett@ubs.com+44-20-7567 5430 Key trading themes ⚫WeflippedtobeingUSDbearsinQ1‘25afterGermanelections.WeextendedthatprofileinAprilafterthe“LiberationDay”tariffannouncementsledtomarketsre-assessinghedgeratiosonUSD.AndweseeroomforalimitedphaseoffurtherUSDweaknessinQ1’26,nowlessasafactorofUSdataandmoreasaconsequenceofgreaterriskpremiumduetouncertaintyaroundthefutureoftheFederalReserve.BeyondQ1,weseethegreenbackrecoveringduetoUSAI-relatedinvestmentaswellasUSfiscaleasinglinkedtotheOBBBAct. ⚫UBSeconomistsseetheFedcuttingratestwicein2026,by25bpineachofJulyandOctober.ThislimitsroomfortheUS1y1yratetodropbelow3.00%inQ1.ThissuppressesFXvolatility,whichcouldcomeunderfurtherpressureinanenvironmentofbothsolidgrowthandstablerates,especiallyifthetrade/tariffoutlookstabilizes.A2019low-volrerunisapotentialtemplatetoconsideratagenerallevel. ⚫WeexpectUSDweaknessnarrativestorunoutofsteambytheendofQ1‘26andforaUSDrecoverytotakeplacethereafter.Marketsarealreadyactivelycontemplatingthemessuchasde-dollarizationandconsensusexpectationsarefavoringamulti-yearUSDdowntrend.Incontrast,westillbelievethattheUSiswell-poisedtoconfoundtheseexpectationsbydeliveringupsidegrowthsurprisesthisyearlinkedtofiscalmeasuresandderegulation.AkeyassumptionhereisthattheFed’sbehaviorfunctiondoesnotchangestructurally. ⚫Elsewhere,EURremainssupportedbyGermanfiscalhopes,withFrenchpoliticsariskcaseratherthanapressingissue.TheJPYneedstoseearesolutionofJapanesefiscalandpoliticaluncertaintyandamorehawkishBoJrateprofileifitistorallymeaningfully.StrongequitymarketsandlowvolatilityotherwisemakeJPYstrengthdifficult.TheAUDiswellplacedtooutperformgivenaresilientdomesticeconomyandbettermarketdynamicsinChina,whileNZDcanjointheparty.WeexpectGBPtooutperformmodestlyasshortsarefurtherreduced.CHFcontinuestolook“goodasgold”withfewreasonstoweakenmaterially.TheScandiesretainpositivequalitiestoo,especiallySEKgiventhegovernment’sfiscalplans. Q1 FX targets and expected ranges ⚫EURUSD:1.1900(Q1range1.1400-1.1900).Thehigherendoftheexpectedrangecanbereachedifmarketsremain on edge about Fed political economy changes and FOMC re-composition risk,especiallyifUSdataareweakenoughtostrengthenfront-loadedratecutnarratives.Additionalnear-termbullishEURUSDfactorsarethemarket’sfocusonGermanfiscalexpansionasaeuroareagrowthpositivealongsidehopesthatthisleadstolesspressurefornetcapitaloutflowsfromtheeuroarea. ⚫USDJPY:160.00(Q1range154.00-162.00).Risk-onmarkets,lowvolatilityandBoJcautionraisetheattractionofusingJPYasafundingcurrency,allowingroomforanotherruntotest2024highsabove160.00.Japan’sfocusonfiscalmeasurestofightinflationratherthantightermonetarypolicyhurtstheJPY.ThepossibilityofanearlyLowerHouseelectioninFebruaryonlyaddstoperceivedriskthatthe“TakaichiTrade”(higherNKY,higherJGByields,lowerJPY)couldgetafreshboost.Japanlikelyneedstointervenesoontostop2024highsbeingbroken;interventionaheadof162.00isourbasecase. ⚫EURGBP:0.8600(Q1range 0.8550-0.8800).We thinkGBPcan prove more resilient than manyexpect.WithBoEcutsnowwell-pricedbythemarket,lowerlong-endgiltyieldsasaresultofreducedfiscalandinflationpremiumshouldbeGBP-positive.BoPdatanowshowarelativelybenignflowbackdrop,whilelowerratesandenergycostsfeedingthroughcanbuoyprivatesectorconfidence.Barringanysignificantrisk-offshocks,wethinksentimenttowardssterlingcanimprove. ⚫EURCHF:0.9200(Q1range0.9200-0.9400).WeexpectCHFtocontinuetoappreciategradually.TheSNBhassetaveryhighbarforfurthercuts,i.e.multiplemonthsofdeflationaryCPIprints,whichlimitsCHF’sresponsivenesstoweakactivitydataprints.Meanwhile,theinefficientrecyclingofthecurrentaccountsurplusremainsinplayasafranc-supportivefactor.Atthesametime,thelikelyuseofCHFforfundingoflongcarrypositionssuggeststestsofthelowendoftheQ4‘25rangewillfindsupport. Q1 FX targets and expected ranges •USDCAD:1.3600(Q1range1.3500-1.4200).WeexpectsomemoderateUSDCADdownsideinQ1astheCanadianeconomyappearstobeonafirmerfooting.Still,withBoCratehikesnotinplayandUSMCAreviewriskslingering,weseelittlescopeforsustainedidiosyncraticCADstrength.Meanwhile,CADvolremainsatlevelsthataresufficientlylowtobeattractiveasariskhedge. •AUDUSD:0.6800(Q1range0.6400-0.6900).WeseeAUDasarelativeoutperformerintheG10.Australia’sresilientfundamentals,supportedbyrisinghouseholdwealthandstimulativefiscalpolicy,shouldtranslateintoRBAhikes,pushingAUDfurtheruptherelativecarryrankings.ThisshouldalsocheapenthecostofhedgingforSuperannuationfundswhohaveroomtoraisetheirFXhedgeratiosfromhistoricallylowlevels.WeareshortEURAUD. •AUDNZD:1.1500(Q1range1.1200-1.1800).SignsofareboundintheNZeconomyareincreasinglyapparentinthebusinessconfidenceanddurablesspendingdata.RBNZexpectationshaveroomtoturnmorehawkishandpositioningislongthecrosswhichsupportsthecasefortacticalAUDNZDshorts. •EURSEK:10.700(Q1 range 10.60-11.10).We remain constru