2026年第一季度外汇策略展望

Shahab JalinoosStrategistshahab.jalinoos@ubs.com Alvise MarinoStrategistalvise.marino@ubs.com Vassili SerebriakovStrategistvassili.serebriakov@ubs.com Benjamin JarrettStrategistbenjamin.jarrett@ubs.com Key trading themes ⚫WeflippedtobeingUSDbearsinQ1‘25afterGermanelections.WeextendedthatprofileinAprilafterthe“LiberationDay”tariffannouncementsledtomarketsre-assessinghedgeratiosonUSD.AndweseeroomforalimitedphaseoffurtherUSDweaknessinQ1’26,nowlessasafactorofUSdataandmoreasaconsequenceofgreaterriskpremiumduetouncertaintyaroundthefutureoftheFederalReserve.BeyondQ1,weseethegreenbackrecoveringduetoUSAI-relatedinvestmentaswellasUSfiscaleasinglinkedtothe ⚫UBSeconomistsseetheFedcuttingratestwicein2026,by25bpineachofJulyandOctober.ThislimitsroomfortheUS1y1yratetodropbelow3.00%inQ1.ThissuppressesFXvolatility,whichcouldcomeunderfurtherpressureinanenvironmentofbothsolidgrowthandstablerates,especiallyifthetrade/tariffoutlook ⚫WeexpectUSDweaknessnarrativestorunoutofsteambytheendofQ1‘26andforaUSDrecoverytotakeplacethereafter.Marketsarealreadyactivelycontemplatingthemessuchasde-dollarizationandconsensusexpectationsarefavoringamulti-yearUSDdowntrend.Incontrast,westillbelievethattheUSiswell-poisedtoconfoundtheseexpectationsbydeliveringupsidegrowthsurprisesthisyearlinkedtofiscalmeasuresand ⚫Elsewhere,EURremainssupportedbyGermanfiscalhopes,withFrenchpoliticsariskcaseratherthanapressingissue.TheJPYneedstoseearesolutionofJapanesefiscalandpoliticaluncertaintyandamore hawkishBoJrateprofileifitistorallymeaningfully.StrongequitymarketsandlowvolatilityotherwisemakeJPYstrengthdifficult.TheAUDiswellplacedtooutperformgivenaresilientdomesticeconomyandbettermarketdynamicsinChina,whileNZDcanjointheparty.WeexpectGBPtooutperformmodestlyasshortsarefurtherreduced.CHFcontinuestolook“goodasgold”withfewreasonstoweakenmaterially.TheScandies Q1 FX targets and expected ranges ⚫EURUSD:1.1900(Q1range1.1400-1.1900).Thehigherendoftheexpectedrangecanbereachedifmarketsremain on edge about Fed political economy changes and FOMC re-composition risk,especiallyifUSdataareweakenoughtostrengthenfront-loadedratecutnarratives.Additionalnear- ⚫USDJPY:160.00(Q1range154.00-162.00).Risk-onmarkets,lowvolatilityandBoJcautionraisetheattractionofusingJPYasafundingcurrency,allowingroomforanotherruntotest2024highsabove160.00.Japan’sfocusonfiscalmeasurestofightinflationratherthantightermonetarypolicyhurtstheJPY.ThepossibilityofanearlyLowerHouseelectioninFebruaryonlyaddstoperceivedriskthatthe“TakaichiTrade”(higherNKY,higherJGByields,lowerJPY)couldgetafreshboost.Japanlikelyneeds ⚫EURGBP:0.8600(Q1range 0.8550-0.8800).We thinkGBPcan prove more resilient than manyexpect.WithBoEcutsnowwell-pricedbythemarket,lowerlong-endgiltyieldsasaresultofreducedfiscalandinflationpremiumshouldbeGBP-positive.BoPdatanowshowarelativelybenignflowbackdrop,whilelowerratesandenergycostsfeedingthroughcanbuoyprivatesectorconfidence. ⚫EURCHF:0.9200(Q1range0.9200-0.9400).WeexpectCHFtocontinuetoappreciategradually.TheSNBhassetaveryhighbarforfurthercuts,i.e.multiplemonthsofdeflationaryCPIprints,whichlimitsCHF’sresponsivenesstoweakactivitydataprints.Meanwhile,theinefficientrecyclingofthecurrentaccountsurplusremainsinplayasafranc-supportivefactor.Atthesametime,thelikelyuseofCHFfor Q1 FX targets and expected ranges •USDCAD:1.3600(Q1range1.3500-1.4200).WeexpectsomemoderateUSDCADdownsideinQ1astheCanadianeconomyappearstobeonafirmerfooting.Still,withBoCratehikesnotinplayandUSMCAreviewriskslingering,weseelittlescopeforsustainedidiosyncraticCADstrength.Meanwhile, •AUDUSD:0.6800(Q1range0.6400-0.6900).WeseeAUDasarelativeoutperformerintheG10.Australia’sresilientfundamentals,supportedbyrisinghouseholdwealthandstimulativefiscalpolicy,shouldtranslateintoRBAhikes,pushingAUDfurtheruptherelativecarryrankings.ThisshouldalsocheapenthecostofhedgingforSuperannuationfundswhohaveroomtoraisetheirFXhedgeratios •AUDNZD:1.1500(Q1range1.1200-1.1800).SignsofareboundintheNZeconomyareincreasinglyapparentinthebusinessconfidenceanddurablesspendingdata.RBNZexpectationshaveroomtoturn •EURSEK:10.700(Q1 range 10.60-11.10).We remain constructive SEK,with bond inflows,FXhedgingdynamics and exposure to European defence spending all supportive factors.With theRiksbankonholdfor“sometimetocome”,risksofdovishsurprisesarelimited.Ongoingdomesticrecoveryiskey.Weprefertowaitforbetterentrypointshere,sellingEURSEKralliesto10.95. ⚫EURNOK:11.750(Q1range11.30-12.00).NOKisunlikelytobenefitfromhedgingorreallocationflowsastheGPFGeffectivelyoperatesentirelyinforeigncurrency.Thegovernment’s2026budgetalsosuggestslargerwithdrawalsfromtheGPFGintoNOKareunlikely.Atthesametime,weviewthecarry UBS FX forecasts Current trade ideas G10 calendar Vol: longer dated implied volatility remains pinned down ⚫EURUSD3mimpliedvolshavedroppedtolevelslastseeninQ32024.With25-deltariskreversalskewsstillbidforEURcalls,themarketseemstohavestalledinarangeduetopriorlongpositioningandconservativeUSandeuroarearatespricing.Otherriskfactorsliketariffshavefallentooandrates/