半导体生产设备：SPE行业展望

Investor Presentation| Japan Semiconductor Production Equipment:Outlook of SPE Industry +81 3 6836-8890 Semiconductor Production Equipment JapanIndustry View Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to theDisclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. From Prof Phillip Wong’s lecture on density as the key to advanced semiconductorperformance Cost breakdown of H100 (1) Wafer capacity required = system units x # of dies per system /# of chips per wafer Test time =#ofcoresx # of chips/yield Introduction of PLP Large-scale domestic investment projects (semiconductor-related) that aremoving forward with the support of the government Source: Morgan Stanley Research based on TSMC’s patents Cross-sectional illustration of VCS Manufacturing process of VCS Silicon Bridge methodIntel’s EMIB (TSMC’sCoWos-L, Samsung’s I-CubeE) Surge in demand due to CoWoS-L yield issueand concerns of a subsequent decline◼B300 shipment started in June while concerns grew that CoWoS-L-relateddemand for testers, assembly tools, andmaterials might temporarily ease◼During theMarQ2025 earnings briefing,Kokusai Electric and ULVAC commentedthat sales of equipment for CoWoS mayslow down going forward◼However, Advantest dismissed concernsabout a temporary slowdown in CoWoS-related demand Packaging Materials in Short Supply◼Mitsubishi Gas Chemical has announced significant shipment delays for BTmaterials (such as prepregs and CCLs)◼Resonacis also experiencing supplyshortages for glass fiber cloth and CCL◼Asahi Kasei has suspended supply ofphotosensitive polyimide to certaincustomers due to supply shortage◼Nitto Boseki, the leading supplier of low-CTE glass cloth, is rushing to expand itsproduction capacity Etching systems Silicon cycle is changing ◼Generative AI and the world beyond◼Microsoft and OpenAI are reportedly planning the launch of the Stargate program in 2028, investing $100 billion in the next four years. (Reuters, Mar 30, 2024;no official announcement from the companies)◼Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis reportedly said during a TED conference in April that the firm willlikely invest more than $100bn, and that Alphabet Inc. has superior computing power to rivals includingMicrosoft. (Bloomberg, Apr 16, 2024)◼Amazon has announced a partnership with a top AI startup on Mar 27, 2024. (Press release, Mar 27.2024)◼Concern on AI investment sustainability, Microsoft plans to continue aggressive investment.*3◼Microsoft announced Jan-Mar 2025 results on Apr 30; Full-F6/25 capex plan +58% YoY to ~$87.8bn(unchanged) with further increase planned for F6/26.◼F6/26 capex to shift from land/buildings and power facilities to electronic equipment (e.g., servers), whichwould be tailwind for semis demand.◼While delayed datacenter investment at somehyperscalers(incl. Microsoft) raised concerns on AIinvestment sustainability, Microsoft plans to continue aggressive investment.◼Good results keep coming out from AI-related US names◼Broadcom announced a big order from 4thAI ASIC customer in Jul Q earnings call with $10B revenuecontribution expected in H2 2026*4◼Oracle announced $455B RPO at the end of Aug Q, jumping by 3x QoQ from $138B*5◼AI and semiconductor demand◼AI servers need significant number of GPUs, and GPUs need significant amount of HBMs.◼NVIDIA reportedly plans to upgrade its GPU flagship model every year for the next four years.*1◼Expect capex directed at HBM4 to start ramping up fully from 2025 2H.* 2◼Demand for advanced packaging such as CoWoS also increasing.◼Also look for introduction of technologies such as glass substrates, photoelectric fusion, etc. See *1Semiconductor Production Equipment: NVIDIA's Keynote Presentation at Computex: Implications for SPE (3 Jun 2024)See *2Semiconductor Production Equipment: Prospects for Upturn in SPE Demand on SK hynix and TSMC’s Joint HBM4 Development (2 May 2024)See *3Semiconductor Production Equipment: Implications from US Tech Firm's Results: Firm's Capex Plans Positive for Japan SPE Industry(2May 2025)See *4Semiconductor Production Equipment: Implications of US Semiconductor Maker Results for Japan SPE (9 Sep 2025)See*5Semiconductor Production Equipment: Implications of US Cloud Infrastructure Vendor’s Earnings for Japan SPE (10 Sep 2025) 2ndSuper Cycle Brought About by EUVL: April 2019 TSMC’s sales by node EUV Lithography beco