半导体生产设备：SPE行业展望

Semiconductor Production Equipment: Outlook of SPE Industry investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to theDisclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Rapid growth of computing power From Prof Phillip Wong’s lecture on density as the key to advanced semiconductorperformance Cost breakdown of H100 (1) Test time =#ofcoresx # of chips/yield Structure of HBM Place contentbelow this line Introduction of PLP Place contentbelow this line Tier1 integrated with capactiors placed on lower RDL Silicon Bridge methodIntel’s EMIB (TSMC’sCoWos-L, Samsung’s I-CubeE) Surge in demand due to CoWoS-L yield issueand concerns of a subsequent decline ◼B300 shipment started in June whileconcerns grew that CoWoS-L-relateddemand for testers, assembly tools, andmaterials might temporarily ease◼During theMarQ2025 earnings briefing,Kokusai Electric and ULVAC commentedthat sales of equipment for CoWoS may Place contentbelow this line Packaging Materials in Short Supply ◼Mitsubishi Gas Chemical has announcedsignificant shipment delays for BTmaterials (such as prepregs and CCLs)◼Resonacis also experiencing supplyshortages for glass fiber cloth and CCL◼Asahi Kasei has suspended supply ofphotosensitive polyimide to certaincustomers due to supply shortage Etching systems Cleaning equipment Mask inspection equipment Memory testers Grinders Silicon cycle is changing ◼Generative AI and the world beyond ◼Microsoft and OpenAI are reportedly planning the launch of the Stargate program in 2028, investing $100billion in the next four years. (Reuters, Mar 30, 2024;no official announcement from the companies)◼Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis reportedly said during a TED conference in April that the firm willlikely invest more than $100bn, and that Alphabet Inc. has superior computing power to rivals includingMicrosoft. (Bloomberg, Apr 16, 2024)◼Amazon has announced a partnership with a top AI startup on Mar 27, 2024. (Press release, Mar 27.2024)◼Concern on AI investment sustainability, Microsoft plans to continue aggressive investment.*3◼Microsoft announced Jan-Mar 2025 results on Apr 30; Full-F6/25 capex plan +58% YoY to ~$87.8bn(unchanged) with further increase planned for F6/26.◼F6/26 capex to shift from land/buildings and power facilities to electronic equipment (e.g., servers), whichwould be tailwind for semis demand.◼While delayed datacenter investment at somehyperscalers(incl. Microsoft) raised concerns on AIinvestment sustainability, Microsoft plans to continue aggressive investment.◼Good results keep coming out from AI-related US names◼Broadcom announced a big order from 4thAI ASIC customer in Jul Q earnings call with $10B revenuecontribution expected in H2 2026*4 2ndSuper Cycle Brought About by EUVL: April 2019 Place contentbelow this line EUV Lithography becoming less relevant Mask making process PM market growth well aligned with semiconductor industry PM market is tied to semi ex-memory market Source: SEMI, SIA, Morgan Stanley Research Merchant market re-entered growth phase SPE Market Environment iPhone Builds By Model Generation AI ASICsdeliver higherperformance for inference GPU and TPU Trend of Memory Prices Disaggregating Storage Place contentbelow this line GPUDirect Storage Place contentbelow this line Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation, rating or price target referenced in this research report, please contact the Client Support Team as follows: US/Canada +1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America+1 718 754-5444 (U.S.); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore +65 6834-6860; Sydney +61 (0)2-9770-1505; Tokyo +81 (0)3-6836-9000. Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing . Global Research Conflict Management Policy Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies As of December 31, 2025, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in M