克罗地亚的通货膨胀：财政政策的作用

Inflation in Croatia:The Role of Fiscal Policy Mariarosaria Comunale SIP/2025/158 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on November 20, 2025. This paper is 2025December Inflation in Croatia: The Role of Fiscal PolicyPrepared by Mariarosaria Comunale Authorized for distribution by Yan Sun IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:After a period of sharp deceleration, inflation in Croatia has inched up since late 2024 to about4–4½ percent year-on-year lately, among the highest in the euro area. As monetary policy is set at the eurozone level, this paper aims to quantify how fiscal policy has affected inflation in Croatia via the use of a RECOMMENDED CITATION:Comunale, Mariarosaria (2025). Inflation in Croatia: The Role of Fiscal Policy,IMF Selected Issues Paper, SIP/2025/158, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Inflation in Croatia:The Role of Fiscal Policy Republic of Croatia Prepared by Mariarosaria Comunale REPUBLIC OF CROATIA SELECTED ISSUES November 20, 2025 Approved ByEuropean Department Prepared By Mariarosaria Comunale (EUR) CONTENTS INFLATION IN CROATIA: THE ROLE OF FISCAL POLICY _________________________2A. Introduction _____________________________________________________________________2B. Methodology ____________________________________________________________________5C. Contribution of Fiscal Shocks to Inflation ________________________________________6 FIGURES 1. Inflation Dynamics in Croatia ____________________________________________________22. Components of Fiscal Balance ___________________________________________________43. Evolution of Credit to the Private Sector _________________________________________44. Baseline Results for Headline HICP_______________________________________________75. Results for Headline HICP with Fiscal Components ______________________________8 APPENDICES I. Econometric Methodology ______________________________________________________12II. Additional Information and Robustness Checks_________________________________15 References________________________________________________________________________11 INFLATION IN CROATIA: THE ROLE OF FISCAL POLICY After a period of sharp deceleration, inflation in Croatia has inched up since late 2024 to about4–4½ percent (y/y) lately, among the highest in the euro area. As monetary policy is set at the eurozone level, this paper aims to quantify how fiscal policy has affected inflation in Croatia via the use ofa Bayesian VAR model. Results show that fiscal policy, particularly the public wage increase A.Introduction 1.Although having fallen significantly from its peak in 2022, Croatia’s headline HICPinflation still hovers around 4–4.5 percent in 2025, among the highest in the euro area.After adecade of relatively low and stable inflation, commodity price shocks and disrupted supply chainspushed inflation to a peak of 13 percent at the end of 2022, following a similar pattern elsewhere inEurope. As the impact of the shocks waned and the ECB’s tightened its monetary policy, HICPinflation fell sharply to an average of 4 percent in 2024. But the disinflation process has slowed since 2.The persistence of inflation in Croatia raises an important question about the role ofdomestic aggregate demand in the recent inflation episode.As a small open economy in theeuro area, Croatia is no doubt vulnerable to external developments. But this does not rule out therole of domestic policies, notably fiscal policy and macroprudential policy, in managing aggregate 3.Fiscal policy has played an important role in shielding businesses and households fromthe impacts of consecutive shocks since the pandemic, but it has turned pro-cyclical since 2023.The general government primary balance deteriorated from a surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP in2022 to a deficit of 0.9 percent of GDP in 2024, largely driven by expenditure growth. In particular,wage growth in the public sector reached over 30 percent y/y at its peak in 2024Q2.2On an annualbasis, public wage grew by 26 percent in 2024. Wage pressures appear to have tapered so far in 4.Credit to the private sector has grown strongly since 2022, potentially fuelingdomestic demand.Household credit growth has been persistently over 10 percent since 2024 while credit to Non-Financial Corporations (NFCs) has been growing slower. Most of the credit growth tohouseholds is in general purpose cash loans, widely used for consumption and housing relatedexpenses.3General purpose cash loans do not require collaterals and can be requested via mobileapps. Easy access to this form of credit has made them increasingly popular.In line with Fund’s past