扩张性财政政策的通货膨胀风险（英）

The Inflationary Risks ofExpansionary FiscalPolicy Sophia Chen SIP/2025/144 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on September 15, 2025. This paperis also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/281. 2025NOV IMF Selected Issues Paper Western Hemisphere Department The Inflationary Risks of Expansionary Fiscal Policy, ColombiaPrepared by Sophia Chen* Authorized for distribution by Ding DingNovember2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on September 15, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/281. ABSTRACT:Drawing on an extensive literature, this paper examines the extent to which expansionary fiscalpolicy poses a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing how inflation responds to shocks to thefiscal deficit and public debt, and by identifying the channels through which these effects operate in LatinAmerican countries. The analysis finds that unanticipated fiscal deficits are associated with higher current andfuture inflation. Consistent with predictions from an open economy Phillips curve framework, output gapswiden, inflation expectations rise, and the real exchange rate depreciates—due to an increase in the riskpremium—following a shock. Unanticipated public debt is also linked to higher inflation mainly through theoutput gap and exchange rate channels. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Chen, Sophia. 2025. “The Inflationary Risks of Expansionary Fiscal Policy”. IMFSelected Issues Paper SIP/2025/144. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS The Inflationary Risks ofExpansionary Fiscal Policy Colombia Prepared by Sophia Chen1 COLOMBIA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByWestern HemisphereDepartment Prepared bySophia Chen(WHD) CONTENTS THE INFLATIONARY RISKS OF EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY ____________________2 FIGURES 1. Responses to Structural Deficit Shocks _______________________________________________72. Inflation Responses to Alternative Measures of Fiscal Shocks ________________________83. Responses to Public Debt Shocks ____________________________________________________9 TABLES 1. Responses to Fiscal and Public Debt Shocks _______________________________________102. Responses to Alternative Measures of Fiscal Deficit Shocks ________________________113. Responses to Public Debt Shocks by Levels of Debt________________________________12 ANNEX I. Empirical Methodology and Data ___________________________________________________13 References____________________________________________________________________________14 THE INFLATIONARY RISKS OF EXPANSIONARY FISCALPOLICY Drawing on an extensive literature, this paper examines the extent to which expansionary fiscal policyposes a challenge to containing inflation.1It does so by assessing how inflation responds to shocks tothe fiscal deficit and public debt, and by identifying the channels through which these effects operatein Latin American countries. The analysis finds that unanticipated fiscal deficits are associated withhigher current and future inflation. Consistent with predictions from an open economy Phillips curveframework, output gaps widen, inflation expectations rise, and the real exchange rate depreciates—due to an increase in the risk premium—following a shock. Unanticipated public debt is also linked tohigher inflation mainly through the output gap and exchange rate channels. 1.This paper examines the extent to which expansionary fiscal shocks challenge the fightagainst inflation. This question is particularly relevant for Colombia, where fiscal policy has becomeexpansionary during 2024-25 at a time when inflation has remained above the central bank's targetrange. This issue is also relevant in peer Latin American and emerging market economies, ascountries balance the need to bring down inflation against the need to support the post-pandemicrecovery and address new social and infrastructure demands. 2.How inflation responds to expansionary fiscal shocks is crucial for determining theappropriate policy response. Monetary policy calibration should consider the drivers and risks ofinflation, including those stemming from fiscal policy. Following a period of elevated inflation and arestrictive monetary stance, an expansionary fiscal stance would boost domestic demand, limitingthe scope for monetary policy normalization. Meanwhile, maintaining high interest rates couldconstrain fiscal space due to the increased public debt burden and could add to appreciationpressures, creating an adverse feedback loop for fiscal and external imbalances with negativeconfidence effects. Conversely, a tighter fiscal policy would enable a quicker reduction in policyrates, while supporting a reduction in