2026年澳大利亚房地产市场前瞻报告(第三版)

TheHorizon Reportsets out our views on Australianreal estate, taking you on a journey through the macro contextunderpinning investment performance, with specific insightsacross the office, industrial, retail and alternative sectors thatshed light on the path to performance in 2026 and beyond. What a difference a year makes. After an extended period of sub-pargrowth, the Australian economy carriessignificant momentum into 2026. Theglobal outlook also looks much brighterthan it did in April, with the US FederalReserve seemingly ready to offer additionalsupport to mitigate ongoing risks stemmingfrom trade disruptions. BEN BURSTONChief Economist,Research & Consulting Meanwhile, real estate markets havereturned to growth and demand hassteadily broadened, with domestic REITsand institutions now returning to thebuyer’s circle, joining an active pool ofoffshore capital and private investors. Looking ahead to 2026, our challengewas to capture the tightness of supplywhile still suggesting possibility. Weturned once again to our creativepartner Studio Riz, who drew inspirationfrom the simple, strategic rhythm of achildhood game. Tetris. JENNELLE WILSON Partner, Head of Research& Consulting, Queensland As ever, challenges remain and aconstrained outlook for development isa particular focus of this year’s report.We explain how high economic rentsare curtailing the supply pipeline acrossmultiple sectors. At first it was about the grid. The puzzle.The pressure to make every piece fit. Thencame a breakthrough. Ben, our editor,framed the year’s theme with one simpleline: From Gridlock to Greenlight. Thatsparked the idea to leave a single spaceopen. A glowing green square. It gavethe entire image a new energy. It hintedthat movement is still possible, and thatperhaps now is the time to act. Equally, however, they are layingthe foundation for rental growth acrossmultiple asset classes. This will drive therecovery at different speeds, and investorswill need to align their strategy with theright assets, but opportunities aboundand the growth prospects are compellingas we enter 2026. DR TONY MCGOUGHPartner, Head of Research& Consulting, Victoria This year’s artwork also reflects astep-change in AI image-making. StudioRiz has continued to push forward andtheir refined visual language is carriedthroughout the document, adding depthand cohesion to the narrative. ALISTAIR READSenior Economist,Research & Consulting BEN BURSTON INTRODUCTION INDUSTRIAL 26Relative value in MelbourneValue-add investors will head south 52Prime vacancy to stabiliseFalling construction is alreadyeasing pressure 6Key highlightsBased on our research here are theHorizontop 7 insights for 2026... 28Time for a new narrativeBeds & sheds has run its course ECONOMY ECONOMIC RENTS 10Renewed momentumHousehold spendingdriving the recovery 32Winds of changeEconomic rents haveincreased substantially 34Crunching the numbersA bridge too far in office markets and asmaller gap in industrial 52Tenant demand to strengthenRetail spending and infrastructure aredriving renewed interest 53Rental performanceto diverge furtherA clear split between precincts andasset sub-classes 12Holding patternGlobal outlook upgraded but still fragile 54Specialised tenants,specialised rentsAsset type and economic rents aredriving pricing for niche users 14Mixed messages on ratesLingering services inflation andglobal debt levels may keep long-termyields elevated 16Digging for goldPrice spike illustrates the unrelentingsearch for secure assets RETAIL 36Arrested developmentThe feasibility squeeze is alreadyhaving a number of immediate impactson the market. 58Turning of the tideRenewed fund-raising signals a shiftin sentiment toward retail CAPITAL MARKETS 40Closing the gapYield compression will ease thedevelopment squeeze OFFICE 58Large centres will outperformSeveral trends are tipping the balance infavour of major retail assets LIVING SECTORS 20Growth is backSelectively at first but therecovery will broaden 22Still time to buyInvestors may need to step outside thecomfort of the core 44No holding backPrime growth will defy aboveaverage vacancy rates 24Target practiceStock selection is key 46The ripple effectGrowth extending beyond the core 62Co-living best placed tobridge the feasibility gapA nimble model gaining tractionas others stall 25Changing shapeThe pattern of growth will bedifferent this time 48Asset performance will differA granular approach can helpidentify opportunity GARAGE_HOME KeyhighlightsBased on our research 3Time for a new narrative: ‘Beds & sheds’giving way to a broader upturn The ‘beds & sheds’ narrative has become a familiarrefrain, but after nearly a decade, out-performance hasrun its course and the outlook for the key sectors ison a much more equal footing. Office and retail assetsnow offer stronger income returns, and rental growthprospects are increasingly positive. They are also readilyinvestable and new entrants can acquire