2026年第一季度PitchBook分析师报告：卡车运输业的整合

EMERGING TECH RESEARCHConsolidation in Trucking Institutional Research Group Jonathan GeurkinkSenior Research Analyst, MobilityTech and Supply Chain Tech Economic forces building to drive a consolidation trend in pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on January 6, 2026 PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most Contents Key takeaways •Multiple structural forces are accelerating consolidation in the US truckingindustry:Technology requirements, rising equipment and regulatory costs, volatilefreight patterns from tariffs and trade shifts, and tightening driver availability are •Trucking remains deeply fragmented but increasingly scale dependent:Withmore than 90% of carriers operating 10 or fewer trucks,1the industry’s structuremagnifies the impact of cyclical swings and cost inflation. Scaling advantages in Q3 2025 earnings trends among publictrucking & logistics firms •Technology and AI are driving margin gains for major public players:Q3 2025earnings from J.B. Hunt, XPO, and C.H. Robinson Worldwide show that digital tools,automation, and network optimization are boosting profitability even amid mutedfreight demand—highlighting a widening performance gap between tech-enabled •Labor and immigration policy are reshaping capacity and pricing dynamics:Newimmigration enforcement and licensing restrictions have disrupted the driverworkforce, contributing to regional trucking rate volatility and raising staffing Confluence of factors should spur deal activity Global PE deal activity in trucking has been relatively flat for the past couple ofyears, but a number of developments should spur consolidation in the industry byincreasing pressure on smaller firms with limited capital and resources. There were40 deals in 2024 and 31 for the first three quarters of 2025. Deal value for 2024 was Trucking market fundamentals Market dynamics The US trucking market is defined by its structural fragmentation, cyclical demandpatterns, and sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions. More than 90% of US truckingcarriers operate 10 or fewer trucks,2creating a highly decentralized competitivelandscape in which pricing power is limited for small operators and concentratedamong a relatively small set of national carriers. This fragmentation contributes to Cost structure fundamentals further shape investment performance. Fuel prices,labor availability, insurance costs, and equipment pricing are the dominant inputs,each with meaningful variability and limited short-term pass-through ability formany carriers. Driver availability in particular remains a structural constraint, oftenaffecting utilization and wage growth more than broader economic cycles. Meanwhile,the capital intensity of maintaining modern fleets—especially as equipment costs Finally, long-term fundamentals are increasingly influenced by technology adoptionand modal competition. Telematics, routing software, and digital freight platformshave improved asset utilization, transparency, and network efficiency, favoringcarriers capable of integrating these tools into operations. At the same time, shipperscontinue shifting freight between truckload, less than truckload (LTL), intermodal, Size, structure, and growth The US trucking market is the largest segment of the domestic freight industry,accounting for roughly 70% to 80% of all freight spending and representing more than$800 to $900 billion in annual revenue, depending on the freight cycle.3,4Its scaleis supported by the essential role trucks play in short-haul distribution, long-haulfreight, and first- and last-mile logistics across nearly every sector of the economy.Structurally, the market is anchored by thousands of small carriers and a handfulof large national operators, with demand driven primarily by consumer spending, Growth in the trucking market has historically been moderate—tracking close tonominal GDP—but several emerging factors are gradually expanding the industry’srevenue base. E-commerce continues to reshape freight patterns, increasing thevolume and frequency of shorter, denser shipments and boosting demand for bothregional truckload and last-mile capacity. Technology adoption across routing,telematics, and digital freight platforms is also enhancing asset utilization and Trucking trends since the COVID-19 pandemic Since the COVID-19 pandemic, pricing dynamics in US trucking have been defined byan extreme boom-bust cycle driven by rapid swings in freight demand and capacity. In2020 and 2021, stimulus-fueled consumer spending, tight supply chains, and severedriver and equipment shortages created one of the strongest price rate environmentsin industry history. Truckload spot rates surged to record highs, contract rates Beginning in mid-2022, the market reversed sharply as consumer spending rotatedfrom goods to services, inventory levels normalized, and the influx of new carrierscontributed to significant overcapacity. Spot rates declined by more th