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INDUSTRY RESEARCHEyes on Venezuela’s Institutional Research Group Oil Revival Benny WongSenior Research Analyst, Energybenny.wong@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com The Venezuelan president’s capture by US forces opensthe door to unlocking the world’s largest oil reserves Published on January 8, 2025 PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Contents The capture of Maduro presents changes forVenezuela’s oil industry Key takeaways Global oil prices have been muted, but therecould be pressure to come for Canadian •The Venezuelan president’s capture by US forces opens the door to unlockingthe world’s largest oil reserves—303 billion bbl, representing 17% of globalproven reserves.1Current production sits at just 800-900 Mbbl/d, down 65% to70% from 2016 levels due to chronic underinvestment and sanctions.2While near-term recovery to 1.5-2 MMbbl/d appears achievable, the real prize of restoring The road to recovery will be long and expensive4 Private equity’s potential role •The economics present a sobering reality check.The majority of Venezuela’sreserves are extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt,3requiring expensive EORtechniques such as Canadian oil sands operations. Supply costs likely sitaround $70-$80/bbl Brent equivalent—substantially higher than Canadian in situ •Global oil prices have been muted, but there could be pressure to come forCanadian heavy oil.Venezuelan heavy crude oil is highly coveted by US Gulf Coastrefineries, and if shipments are redirected to them, this threatens to deepen price •PE’s role will evolve cautiously and opportunistically.Initially, expect small-ticketindirect exposure through oil field services, equipment supply, and logistics. Themedium-term sweet spot potentially lies in midstream infrastructure and powerrehabilitation as stability emerges, plus acquiring noncore assets divested bymajors refocusing capital toward Venezuela. Only after a stable regime takeshold in Venezuela will broader upstream and downstream opportunities become The capture of Maduro presents changes for On January 3, 2026, it was announced that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro wascaptured in a special operation by US forces in Venezuela’s capital of Caracas. Alongwith stating that the US will be running Venezuela until there is a “safe, proper, andjudicious transition,” President Trump has expressed his wish for US companies to expand oil operations in Venezuela and unlock the vast oil opportunity in the country.Venezuela currently produces around 800 to 900 thousand barrels per day (Mbbl/d) of Global oil prices have been muted, but there could be Brent oil prices have largely shrugged off the recent developments in Venezuela andany concerns of supply disruption, oscillating around $60-$65/bbl. The Brent priceis down around 20% from a year ago, reflecting existing concerns of oversupply inthe market. Agencies such as the US Energy Information Administration and the Most of Venezuela’s oil is sold to China; however, the type of crude it produces ishighly coveted by refineries along the US Gulf Coast. The US facilities are designedto process heavy and sour (high-sulfur) crude slates that give them a cost advantage(heavy crudes are cheaper than light crudes) and more profitable yields (moredistillates such as diesel and jet fuel). The US imports approximately 4 MMbbl/d ofoil from Canada, of which over 60% is heavy oil.11, 12Approximately 400-450 Mbbl/dof the Canadian heavy oil reaches the US Gulf Coast,13, 14potentially facing increasedcompetition from Venezuelan heavy oil if shipments are redirected to the US. Phillips The road to recovery will be long and expensive There is talk that Venezuelan production could recover to 1.5-2 MMbbl/d over thenext couple of years, depending on how US sanctions evolve and stabilization effortsprogress. However, getting volumes back to the heyday of oil production, peaking at3.5 MMbbl/d, and beyond is expected to be a long and expensive journey. The outlookof oil prices will undoubtedly influence enthusiasm and pace. Anyone putting moneyin the ground today will need to believe oil prices will be high enough to more thanrecover costs in the future. The majority of Venezuela’s reserves are extra-heavycrude found in the Orinoco Belt;15the crude has an American Petroleum Institute(API) gravity of 9.5 to 12 degrees, compared with light oil, which has an API gravity ofmore than 31 degrees, making it technically challenging and expensive to produce. According to Venezuela’s state-owned oil company (PDVSA) in 2021, approximately$58 billion is needed to restore crude production to levels seen before formerPresident Hugo Chávez’s administration.16Today, the figure commonly cited is morethan $100 billion, representing around $10 billion in annual investment over a decade Private equity’s potential role Outside of selec