挪威2025年能源转型展望

A national forecast to 2060 FOREWORD For many decades, Norway’s energy system has been characterized by twowords: abundance and independence. It is now 50 years since oil exports fromEkofisk started and Norway’s offshore adventure began. In power generation,over a century of hydropower development has given Norway a system mostcountries envy: renewable, flexible, and deeply integrated into society andindustry. Yet the coming decades will see Norway’s energy story shaped justas much by forces outside Norway’s borders as by choices at home. This year’sEnergy Transition Outlook for Norwaydoes notoffer simple answers. Instead, we provide a data-drivenforecast to 2060 and a framework for understanding thekey choices ahead as Norway shifts from an era of energyabundance and independence to one where the energysector plays an ever-smaller role in the economy andenergy interdependence with Europe becomes anincreasingly pressing issue. Europe’s energy-security concerns are keeping Norwegiangas in high demand, even as Europe pursues deepdecarbonization. Norway will retain a high share of adeclining market, but it will be far easier to meet Europe’sneed for stable gas supply than to become the reliablesupplier of green dispatchable electricity. Norwaysupplies around 30% of Europe’s natural gas and will stayan important provider of secure energy to Europe formany years. As European gas demand falls, Norway’sexport volumes and revenues will decline sharply after2040, and drop to around 20% of today’s levels by 2060. I hope you find this report useful, and we welcome yourfeedback and engagement. Domestically, Norway faces a three-faceted dilemma thatis becoming increasingly acute: sustaining energyexports, enabling green industrial growth, and deliveringrapid emissions cuts. Electricity demand is rising as datacentres are built and energy-intensive industries, trans-port, and petroleum operations electrify. However, newgeneration capacity and grid reinforcements are notkeeping pace. We forecast Norway moving into a powerdeficit in the early 2030s, relying on net imports even asthe debate about price levels and interconnectorsintensifies. Wind power is the only technology that canscale fast enough and at acceptable cost to moveNorway back into power surplus. At the same time, gridbuild-out and system resilience, including cyber andphysical security, must move from being an afterthoughtto a central pillar of policy. In our forecast, we foresee little growth in cross-borderexchange of energy beyond hydrocarbons, limited greentechnology exports, and domestic emission cuts that fallshort of Norway's own targets unless policies, permitting,and investment conditions are strengthened. Remi Eriksen HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS Norway’s energy transition slowed by geopoliticsand national priorities1 Norwegian energy exports are pivotal in the nearterm, but decline sharply by 20403 — International supply-chain and policy uncertaintiesreduce domestic willingness to invest in renewablebuildouts and green industries. — Norway currently supplies around 30% of Europe’snatural gas and will remain the preferred supplier.However, due to Europe’s decarbonization pathway,production of oil and gas is set to almost halve by2040 and fall to 80% by 2060 with current productionand investment plans. — Europe’s energy-security concerns sustain strongdemand for Norwegian gas, but lock in capital,talent, and political attention to the legacy hydro-carbon sector. — With rising shares of variable renewables, Norwe-gian hydropower will help to dampen price volatilityand generate valuable export revenue. However,there is far greater potential than current transmis-sion and interconnector plans suggest. — Domestic welfare, subsidized power prices, and localnature protection priorities outweigh ambitions todevelop new electricity production and for large-scale electricity and hydrogen exports. — The limited likelihood of large-scale power orhydrogen build-out signals an end to Norway’s role asan energy exporter beyond declining hydrocarbons. Electricity demand outpaces new supply;wind is the only scalable option2 Norway is not on track to achieve stated climatetargets without extensive use of credits — Short-term electricity demand growth leads to asupply/demand deficit in the early 2030s thatchallenges Norwegian industry and calls for astrategic debate on power queues, priorities, andsecurity. — Norway aims for 90–95% emissions reduction by2050. We forecast domestic emissions only falling75% by then. With domestic emission cuts laggingEuropean peers, excessive use of carbon credits isneeded to successfully deliver onParis Agreementcommitments. — Wind is the only scalable pathway to add newcapacity at the necessary pace and acceptablecost. Between 2030 and 2060, onshore capacityalmost triples. — Existing and planned policies are insufficient toensure the necessary step-change in sectors withsignificant emissions. — Further cuts in domestic