中国“十五”规划（一）：创新与自立；新兴及未来产业

China’s 15thFive-Year Plan (I):Innovation and self-reliance; Emerging and futureindustries Iris Zheng, Head of APAC Automation & Industrials | (+852) 2203 5884 |iris.zheng@db.com 8 January 2026 Innovation and self-reliance; Emerging and future industries Technological innovation and self-reliance remain key; Manufacturing still important In the Proposal for the 15thFive-Year Plan (FYP),Innovation(61 times),Modernisation(58 times),Security(57 times) andTechnology(46 times)are the four most mentioned words. Among them,Modernisation(+18 times), Innovation (+14 times), andTechnology (+10 times) witness an increase in no. of mentions in the 15thvs the 14thPlan. “Substantial improvements intechnological self-reliance and innovation” is introduced as a new and major objective, ranking no.2among the seven objectives of the 15thFYP. The Proposal also states that China is prepared to adopt “extraordinary measures” todrive decisive core technology breakthroughs, underscoring an intensified national drive towards greater technology independenceand innovation, in our view. China aims to keep the share ofmanufacturingin the economy at an“appropriate” levelin the 15thFYP vs “stable” in the 14thFYP.We think this suggests that the manufacturing sector remains important, but the government is gearing towards higher-qualitydevelopment as reflected in the anti-involution measures. New industries to watch: Embodied AI, Low-altitude economy, Aerospace and more For the first time, the Proposalcategorisesindustries into three segments–traditional industries, emerging industries and futureindustries–and lists out focus areas for each industry: •Traditional industries: The goal is to upgrade for better quality development and competitiveness; •Emerging and future industries:New industries mentioned in the 15thFYP includelow-altitude economy, biomanufacturing,nuclear,embodied AI,6G and AI+ initiatives. Meanwhile,aviation & aerospace, alongsidenew energyandnew materials,isstilllisted as key emerging industries. National-level Outline and Industry-level policies are still pending Whilst the national-level Proposal was published in October 2025, and provincial-level Proposals over November and December,the detailed national-level Outline is to be released in March 2026. On an industry-level, there has been a clear increase in policy initiatives around embodied AI and humanoid robot since late 2023.We expect industry-level 15thFYP to follow in late 2026 to 2027. Stock implications from the 15thFYP Solid delivery track record; Good achievements during the 14thFive-Year Plan and for “Made in China 2025” Fourindustry-levelplans were announced inthe 14thFYPcovering Smart manufacturing, Robotics, Information &industrialisation,and Industrial green development. Based on the available information, China has progressed welland has achieved and evensurpassedmost targets for metrics such as robot density, no. of industrial internet platforms, digital penetration and waterconsumption reduction. Separately, China also published the “Made in China 2025” policy in 2015. Similarly, most goals set for 2020 have beenachieved,and those for 2025 haveprogressed welltowards targets for most metrics such as digital R&D penetration and numerical controlrate. Stock implications: Aerospace and Low-altitude economy could follow the sentiment waves as seen for Humanoid robots We highlight four key takeaways when it comes tostock implicationsto our APAC Industrials coveragein the long termfrom the15thFYP: 1)The emphasis onself-reliancefavoursdomestic brandswith continued room forlocalisation: this should benefitInovance,Supcon,AirtacandEstun;2)The drive forinnovationfavoursindustry leadersfor their superior ability in financing, R&D and talent acquisition: this shouldbenefitInovanceandSupcon;3)Thehumanoid robotmarket is set to grow exponentially with strong policy support in China: this should benefit local suppliersincludingSanhua,Hengli,Leaderdrive,ShuanghuanandInovance;4)Despite being in a very early phase, new industries such asAerospaceandLow-altitude economycould witness similarsentiment-driven share price waves as seen for Humanoid robots (detailed table of relevant companies on slide 3):•Aerospace:this should benefitLeaderdrive,Hengli,ShuanghuanandHarmonic Drive; •Low-altitudeeconomy:Leaderdrive,Shuanghuan,InovanceandHarmonic Drive. Key charts Industrial & Technology policies from 15thFYP Proposal: Categorisationof traditional, emerging and future industries China has progressed well towards the targets set in the 14thFYP (2021-25), with several metrics ahead of targets Table of content 1.IntroExecutive summaryKey charts________________________________________________________ 2.China’s 15thFive-Year Plan for 2026-2030Timeline6Keywords7Objectives8Policies for Industrial and Tech9Provincial-level policies11 3.Recap of industry-level policies under China’s 14thFive-Year (2021-2025), and the Made in China 2025 policy14thFYP targets