2025年美国假日购买意向

2025 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions K E YF I N D I N G S October 2025 Copyright 2025 Circana, LLC (“Circana”).All rights reserved. Circana, the Circana logo, and the names of Circanaproducts and services are trademarks of Circana. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Table of contents 2025 Holiday PurchaseIntentions:Key Findings Holiday Retail Outlookby Marshal Cohen Influencers and Perceptions About the Study •Objectives and Methodology•Notes HolidayRetailOutlook by Marshal CohenChief Retail Advisor Circana’sHoliday Retail Outlook Prioritization and unpredictability are at the core of U.S. consumer intentions for the 2025 holiday season. Consumer resiliency endures as shoppers plan to spend morethis year amid expectations of higher prices. This holiday season will be challenging to decipher as shoppersare prepared tomake adjustmentsin how and when they shop. Timing will play a critical rolethis holiday season as more shoppers plan to get startedearlier in November to avoid possible future price increases. More than a third of holidayshoppers say they will take advantage of more deals this year, with a growing numberhaving their sights set on Black Friday for the best deals. Fewer will be waiting till thelast minute to get their shopping done.Priceis a variable at the center of the season.More than 6 in 10 holiday shoppers saythat food and grocery costs will have an impact on holiday shopping, and 31% plan tobuy fewer itemsas a result ofincreased prices at retail.Social media has the potential to significantly influence the holiday shopping season, More than 8 in 10holiday shoppersexpect prices to be higheras a result oftariffs/import regulations, and the number of shoppersplanning to spend morethisholiday shopping seasonhas increasedonce again. The average planned holiday spend is 3% higher than last year.Prioritized spending and practical gifting are both evidentin the mixture andinconsistency of growth and declines in both purchase and spending intentions holiday purchases, but apparel and toys will face challenges.Holiday shoppers reveal their cost-conscious thinking, as free shipping, value, andsales top their list of things that will influence where they shop this season. However,the number ofconsumers who plan to self-gift stabilized at 21%,same as last year. HolidayProjections: 2025 holiday spending is expected to besimilar tolast year’s results, falling between a 1% decline and2% growth in dollars. However, unit sales may fall by as much as 2.5% during the traditional Novemberand December holiday shopping period. Circana’sHolidayRetail OutlookBy Marshal Cohen “The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the 2025 holidayshopping season, which means the flow of the season will be less predictable.” Retail performance sets the stage for a rocky start to the season U.S. retail sales trends, including discretionary general merchandise and consumer packaged goods (CPG),are in a period of “invisible inflation,” where diminishing demand trends are offsetting higher prices andgiving the appearance of retail sales stability. Consumers no longer have the same purchasing power theyhad a year ago. Early fall promotions fell flat, and even if year-over-year sales begin to pick up through “Holiday 2025 will be full of surprisesand challenges—from comparisons tothe 2024 election impact andcontinuous economic uncertainty to Consumers need a break—a quest for value, convenience, and holiday spirit Holiday shoppers are seeking out the best deals to offset rising prices, embracing the convenience of shoppingon their smartphone, and looking at the holiday season as a break from everything going on in the world.Consumers are overwhelmed. Consumers are distracted. That distraction, and the methods shoppers plan toenlist to help mitigate those feelings, are limiting the potential for critical impulse purchases and seasonalsplurges. Marketers need to find a way to help consumers on their quest and alleviate their distractions. Purchasing pullback does not equal a lack of desire for product Marshal CohenChief Retail Advisor,Circana While consumers are buying less overall, and holiday shoppers are planning on buying fewer items to offsethigher prices, that doesn’t mean they won’t spend when presented with the right product. High-end, innovativetechnology and entertainment products are having success, as are affordable splurges like beauty. There issignificant pent-up demand for new and relevant products—the key to becoming a consumer priority this WhatConsumerSpendingWill Look Like How much will they spend? What will they buy? Shoppers intend to spend more thisholidayseason, up 3% vslast year. Plan to Spend on Holiday Shopping(Mean among total respondents) Over40% of shoppers with childrenplan tospend morethisyear compared to last year, while only19% of shoppers Millennial shoppers are more likely to think they willspend more this y