情绪、钢厂复产、补库共振催涨铁矿石

Outlook市场展望On the fundamental side: overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals in China remain at a high year-on-year level, resulting in an overall loose 2. Steel mills hold low inventory under their own control, creating expectations for stock replenishment ahead of the Spring Festival3. The first quarter enters a shipping off-season, with increasing weather-related disruptions;4. As special-purpose bonds and policy-based financial instruments are implemented, the pace of fund disbursement is expected to acceleratein Q1, potentially leading to marginal improvement in physical demand. ferrous complex has been lifted by the broad-based rally, and combined with iron ore's strong financial attributes, these factors have jointly drivenprices significantly higher. catalysts, iron ore prices may return to a fluctuating range, and could trend downward smoothly driven by weak demand after the completion ofstock replenishment. Conversely, if supply-side disruptions occur or end-demand exceeds expectations, iron ore prices are expected to extendtheir upward trend.Risks: 1.Upside risks: Supply disruptions from overseas mines (e.g., accidents), favorable policy measures, and weather-related impacts oniron ore arrival schedules in China. 2. Downside risks: A more-than-expected decline in demand, and a drop in pig iron output from steel 面更多起到制约涨幅的作用，暂不构成核心利空驱动。 短期利多因素共振：1）1月铁水复产预期较强；2）钢厂货权库存偏低，节前存在补库预期；3）一季度步入发运淡季，天气扰动增加；4）伴随专项债及政策性金融工具落地，一季度资金到位节奏有望加快，实物需求或将边际改善。此外，近期宏观情绪回暖，商品市场 多头氛围浓厚，低估值的黑色板块受普涨带动，叠加铁矿石较强的金融属性，合力推动价格显著走高。展望后市，基本面累库压力已大致被市场计价。后续核心博奔在于：一是商品情绪退潮的节点，二是Q1供需两端的实际验证。若供应端无明显扰动且需求缺乏亮点，矿价或重回震荡，补库结束后可能在弱需求驱动下流畅下行；反之，若供应端出现扰动或终端需求超预期，则矿价有望延续上行趋势。 风险因素：海外矿山供给存在事故等因素扰动，政策端利好，天气因素影响矿石到港节奏（上行风险）；需求降幅超预期，降能耗和控钢产等政策因素导致钢企铁水产出回落（下行风险）。 Source: CITIC FuturesImportant Notice: This report is not a service under futures trading consulting business. The views and information contained herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyperson.Wewill notregardanypersonasour clientmerelybecause theyhave paid attentioeadthecontentsof thisreport.Themarketissubiecttorisks.andinvestmentshouldbemadewith caution.Disclaimer:Unless otherwise stateoCiTicFutures")owns the copyright/and other relevant intellectual property rights of this reportNo part of this report may be sent or copied withoutauthorization.ClTic Futures makes no explicit or implied warranties regarding theaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,and completeness of thenformation，views，anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanyprivateconsultingadvicegivenbyCiTicFutures.重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议市场有风险，投资需谨慎。免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期我司不会因为关注收到或阅读本报告内内容而视相关人员为客户： 货有限公司（以下简称“中信期货）拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。