航空航天与国防行业估值趋势研究：太空数据中心驱动AI竞赛迈向新阶段

Val. Trends #908: Data centers in spaceexpanding the AI race Industry Overview 15 December 2025 SpaceX, Blue Origin, others look to the stars to scale AIAs demand for data centers supporting AI grows, tech and spacecompanies are increasingly looking to space-based computing platforms as the next stage of capacityexpansion. Both Blue Origin’s Jeff Bezos and SpaceX’s Elon Musk have publiclycommented that they are exploring the idea. In November, startup Starcloud (supportedby Nvidia) deployed an Nvidia GPU aboard a satellite and used it to train an AI model onorbit. Also in November, Google published an outline for its own deployment of TPUs toorbit, named Project Suncatcher, and announced a partnership with Planet (PL; notcovered) to test its hardware and AI models on orbit in 2027. EquityAmericasAerospace/Defense Ronald J. EpsteinResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5695r.epstein@bofa.com Mariana Perez MoraResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5696mariana.perezmora@bofa.com Reminder: space is hard (especially for computing)Despite early enthusiasm, the space environment presents a number of technical challenges to scaled deployment of high-performance computing payloads. Orbitaldeployment of data centers is attractive in large part due to the continuous and higherintensity solar energy available in sun-synchronous orbit, though this is coupled withincreased radiation that can damage unshielded electronics including chips. For thisreason, computing equipment intended for long-term use in space is radiation hardened,adding cost and payload mass. Thermal management of sensitive chips is made doublydifficult by the vacuum of space. For reference, according to NASA the ISS’s six mainradiators measure a combined ~5,000 square feet and ~14,000 pounds and can reject 70kilowatts of heat; a 1-gigawatt hyperscaler-type orbital data center could require~15,000x more heat rejection capacity. Jordan LyonnaisResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5204jordan.lyonnais@bofa.com Samantha StirohResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5725samantha.stiroh@bofa.com Alexander PrestonResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3599alexander.preston@bofa.com Upside to launch demand if data centers take off Access to launch remains an industry capacity constraint today, and scaled deploymentof space-based data centers could stand to benefit space launch providers like SpaceX,Blue Origin, and RKLB. In-development super-heavy lift launch vehicles like Starship(150-250 tons to orbit) and New Glenn 9x4 (70 tons to orbit) could require hundreds offlights to fully deploy a single space-based hyperscaler data center. Even at smallerinitial scales, demand for launch could continue to outstrip supply, expanding opportunityto support multiple large launch providers. RKLB’s Neutron medium-lift rocket, expectedto complete its first test launch in 2026, would provide >40x more mass to orbitcapability than its existing Electron launch vehicle. RKLB: Rocket Lab Corporation LUNR: Intuitive Potential downstream effects across space infrastructure Proliferated space data center deployment could generate demand across spaceinfrastructure, from satellites and payloads to space stations and orbital platforms.Secure high bandwidth data transmission needed for AI applications could expanddemand for laser communications, with current providers including SpaceX and Mynaric(being acquired by RKLB). RKLB and LUNR have exposure to satellite buses, with LUNRexpected to acquire Lanteris in 1Q26. Deployment of large-scale space assets couldprovide opportunities for station developers like VOYG Starlab; competitor Axiom(private) plans to deploy its Orbital Datacenter infrastructure node to the ISS in 2027. Valuation analysis US Aero & Defense Comp Sheet Performance Charts Rocket Lab was up 25% in the last week Amentum was up 29% in the last 30 days Rocket Lab was up 172% in the last 52 weeks Palantir Technologies was up 143% YTD S&P Metals & Mining was up 5% in the last week S&P O&G was up 10% in the last 30 days S&P SmallCap Aero&Def was up 98% YTD Price to earnings Exhibit16:NTM PE relative to S&P 500Valuations declined, but still in line with 2013-2015 levels aside from GE Exhibit15:LARGE CAP NTM PELarge caps are currently trading in line with 2013-2015 levels, GE has rerated to ~20x Exhibit18:STM PE relative to S&P 500Valuations declined, but still in line with 2013-2015 levels, aside from BA and Exhibit17:LARGE CAP STM PE Large caps are currently trading in line with 2013-2015 levels, except for BAand GE which have rerated in recent years GE which have re-rated recently Exhibit19:SMALL & MID CAP STM PECommercial multiples are up factoring in recovery in air traffic. Most in the Exhibit20:STM PE relative to S&P 500Relative valuation recovering since 2021, HEI is an outlier at 2.5x 20-30x range vs. ~20x a few years ago Exhibit22:NTM PE relative to S&P 500Relative valuations broadly trend between 0.5x-1.5x relative to the S&P500 Exhibit21:SMALL & MID CAP NTM P