中国化妆品行业2026年展望：彩妆驱动增长，抖音抢占份额，执行力决定优胜者

China Cosmetics 2026: Colour drives growth, Douyin capturesshare, execution determines outperformers China's cosmetics market enters 2026 with growth drivers shifted from premium-led to a landscape where platform execution, category rotation, and operationaldiscipline determine outperformers.The market stabilizes at mid-single-digit growth(+4.7% in 2026, accelerating to +5.7% CAGR through 2030) after two years of inventorycorrection. Mass brands capture share from premium, colour outpaces skincare, anddomestic players leveraging Douyin fluency displace Western brands reliant on traditionalchannels. Key themes for 2026: Melinda Hu+852 2123 2643melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.com Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Frankie Fong+852 2123 2637frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com Platform strategy defines outperformers: Douyin vs.Tmall.Domestic brandsgenerating 70%+ Douyin sales mix vs. Western brands' 40% capture greater growthas social commerce concentrates share. Top domestic performers (Pechoin, KanS,Maogeping) scaled Douyin from 50% to 70% with +24-88% growth, while Western leadersremained Tmall-heavy with minimal growth. Outperformers demonstrate better livestreamconversion, real-time inventory synchronization during KOL broadcasts, and contentoptimization that Western brands cannot replicate due to organizational constraints.Leading domestic players build moats through closed-loop systems: proprietary appscapture first-party data enabling formulation precision and Douyin audience targeting thatmultinationals cannot replicate through third-party platforms. Colour drives growth; skincare matures.Colour cosmetics (+12.2% online Nov YTD2025) significantly outpaces skincare (+1.3%), with 10-12% annual growth forecastthrough 2030 vs. skincare's 3-5%. Lower penetration and self-expression trends areexpected to expand colour's share from 14% to ~20% by 2030, while skincare facessaturation. Mass colour (+16.5%) leads segment growth as mass skincare contracts -2.8%. Mass outpaces premium; operational discipline separates outperformers.Mass (+6.2% forecast 2026) outperforms premium (+3.2%) as value-seeking reversespremiumization, with premium's share declining from 46% peak to 40% by 2030E. Inmass skincare, scale alone fails, only brands combining platform fluency with operationaldiscipline (data-driven inventory, vertical integration, category diversification) succeed.Pechoin (+112%) demonstrates heritage-digital integration while Proya (-10%) showspromotional spending without efficiency fails. Domestic brands' faster formulation cyclesvs. multinationals' enable capture of affordable efficacy segments. In premium, clinical/dermo brands (SkinCeuticals +29%, Vichy +48%) sustain growth through functional moatswhile Korean prestige collapses (Sulwhasoo -36%, Laneige -43%) and undifferentiatedmasstige declines (Clinique -16%, Dr. Jart -29%). Sector outperformers demonstrate platform execution, category agility, and efficacy validation.Top performers lead through: (1) Platform-native execution with 70%+ Douyin sales mix, superior livestream conversion, and closed-loop data systems enablingformulation precision; (2) Category rotation from saturating mass skincare into colourcosmetics, functional cosmetics, and cosmeceuticals while maintaining clinical credibility;(3) Efficacy-driven premium positioning through clinical validation rather than heritagealone. MaoGeping (NC) excels in cultural positioning sustaining premium pricing. ShanghaiChicmax (NC) leads platform-native execution with viral Douyin content. Shanghai Jahwa(NC) proves heritage brands can transform through operational discipline. Yatsen (NC)rotates toward higher-margin skincare though execution risk persists. Under our coverage,we rate Giant Biogene Outperform, Proya Market-Perform, Shiseido Underpform. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS •Giant Biogene (2367.HK):We maintainOutperformrating on Giant Biogene (TP: HKD 45, +31% upside), based on 14xNTM+1 P/E target multiple. Recombinant collagen platform technology positions for cosmeceutical growth in functionalskincare, but 2025 KOL ingredient controversy created sales pullback. While consumer trust has since recovered onXiaohongshu, the company's weak marketing and communication capabilities prevent it from translating product credibilityinto sales momentum. Near term stock upside limited by management's execution gap - strong product requires equallystrong brand-building and communication to drive commercial success. Therefore, we have lowed down our previous HKD70 target price (based on 20x NTM+1 P/E) to HKD 45 based on lower NTM+1 P/E target multiple. However, we believethere is potential for recovery and future injectable products could be another growth vector. •Proya (603605.SS):We maintainMarket-Performratings on Proya (TP: RMB 62, -11% downside), based on 13x NTM+1 P/E target multiple.. Despite 90%+ online mix and prior innovation leadership, -10% decline