中国制造业PMI月刊（2025年10月）

China’s manufacturing PMIdropsto 49.0 in Helen ChinE: helenchin@ust.hk William KongE: williamkong@ust.hk HKUST LI & FUNGSUPPLY CHAIN INSTITUTELSK Business Building Allof the 13 sub-indicesfell compared withthe previous month. For example,the neworders indexdecreased by 0.9 pts to 48.8 in October, pointing to a contraction inmarket demand. Similarly,the new export orders indexdroppedby1.9pts to asix-monthlow of 45.9, indicatinga faster decline inexport demand. Against this backdrop,the output indexwent down to 49.7 in October,its lowest level since May 2023, By size of enterprises,the PMI of ‘large enterprises’fellto49.9 in October from51.0 inSeptember. The PMI of ‘medium enterprises’edged downto48.7 in October from48.8 The output indexdroppedto49.7 in October from51.9 in September.The outputindexof ‘large enterprises’stayedabove theneutral level of 50,registering50.9inOctober. The new orders indexwent downto48.8 in October from49.7 in September.The newordersindexof‘large enterprises’remainedintheexpansionaryzone,registering50.1in The new export ordersindexdeclinedto45.9 in October from47.8 in September.Thenew export ordersindicesof‘largeenterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and‘small The backlogs of orders indexfellto44.5 in October from45.2 in September.Thebacklogsof orders indicesof‘large enterprises’, ‘medium enterprises’and ‘smallenterprises’allremainedbelowtheneutral level of 50,registering46.6, 43.7and40.6 The stocks of finished goods indexedged down to 48.1 in October from48.2 inSeptember.The stocks of finished goods indicesof‘largeenterprises’, ‘medium The stocks of major inputs indexdecreasedto47.3 in October from48.5 in September.Themajor inputsindicesof‘largeenterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and‘small The purchases of inputs indexdroppedto49.0 in October from51.6 in September.Thepurchases of inputsindexof‘large enterprises’remainedinthe expansionaryzone,registering50.9inOctober.Meanwhile, the purchases of inputs indicesof‘medium The imports indexwentdownto46.8 in October from48.1 in September.Theimportsindicesof‘large enterprises’,‘mediumenterprises’and‘small enterprises’all stayed The input prices indexfellto52.5 in October from53.2 in September. Theinput pricesindicesof‘large enterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and‘small enterprises’ allremained Theex-factory prices indexdeclinedto47.5 in October from48.2 in September.1Theex-factory prices indicesof‘largeenterprises’,‘mediumenterprises’and‘small The employment indexedged down to 48.3 in October from48.5 in September.Theemployment indicesof‘largeenterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and ‘small The suppliers’ delivery time indexcame in at50.0 in October, down from50.8 inSeptember.A reading above 50 implies faster delivery; below 50, slower delivery. Thesuppliers’ delivery time indices of ‘large enterprises’, ‘medium enterprises’ and ‘small The business expectations indexdecreasedto52.8 in October from54.1 in September.The business expectations indices of ‘large enterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and ‘small CFLP 中國物流與採購聯合會 China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) is the logistics and purchasing industryassociation approved by the State Council. CFLP’s mission is to push forward the developmentof the logistics industry and the procurement businesses of both government and enterprises, NBS 國家統計局 The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), an agency directly under the State Council in China, isin charge of the country’s statistics. It is responsible for formulating statistical policies andestablishing the national statistical system, drafting and enforcing the statistical laws and China Manufacturing PMI 中國製造業採購經理指數 China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early indication eachmonth of economic activities in theChinese manufacturing sector. It is jointly published by Every month questionnaires are sent to 3,000 manufacturing enterprises all over China. Thedata presented herein is compiled fromthe enterprises’ responses about their purchasingactivities and supply situations. CFLP makes no representation regarding the datacollection 3,000 manufacturing enterprises in 31 industries from Eastern, Northeastern, Central andWestern China are surveyed. Thesampling of the enterprises involves the use of ProbabilityProportional to Size Sampling (PPS), which means the selection ofenterprises surveyed is There are 13 sub-indicators in the survey: Output, New Orders, New Export Orders, Backlogs ofOrders, Stocks of Finished Goods,Purchases of Inputs, Imports, Input Prices, Stocks of MajorInputs, Ex-factory Prices, Employment, Suppliers’ Delivery Time andBusiness Expectations. An The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted indices for five of the sub-indicators with varying weights: NewOrders—30%; Output—25%; Employment—20%;Suppliers’ Delivery Time—15%; and Stocks of Major Inputs—10%. A PMI readingabove 50 Currently there are more than twenty countries and regions conducting the PMI survey and HKUST L