中国制造业PMI月刊（2025年1月）

China’s manufacturing PMIfalls to49.1inJanuary, indicating acontractionin themanufacturing sectoramid seasonal factors Helen ChinHead William KongManager HKUST LI & FUNGSUPPLY CHAIN INSTITUTELSK Business BldgThe Hong Kong University ofScience & TechnologyClear Water Bay KowloonHong KongE:ustlfsci@ust.hk Nineof the 13 sub-indices were lower than their respective levels in the previousmonth.For example, the new orders index declined by1.8 pts to 49.2inJanuary,pointing to a contraction in market demand.The new export orders indexalsowentdownby1.9pts to 46.4,indicatingthat export demand has reduced at afasterpacerecently.Against this backdrop, the output index dropped below the critical 50-mark to49.8 in the month, indicating that output has started to contract lately.Meanwhile,theinput prices indexincreasedby 1.3pts to 49.5inJanuary,andtheex-factory pricesindexrose by 0.7 pt to 47.4 in the month.Also noteworthy is that the businessexpectations index picked up by2.0pts toa 10-month high of55.3, which bodes wellfor the PMI reading inFebruaryafter the Chinese New Yearholidayperiodsuppressedfactory activity inlateJanuary. By size of enterprises,the PMI of ‘large enterprises’went downto49.9in January from50.5 in December. The PMI of ‘medium enterprises’declinedto49.5 in January from50.7 in December.The PMI of ‘smallenterprises’fellto46.5 in January from48.5 inDecember. The output indexdecreasedto49.8 in January from52.1 in December.The outputindexof ‘large enterprises’stayedabovethe neutral level of 50,registering 51.3inJanuary.Meanwhile, theoutput indicesof‘medium enterprises’and‘small enterprises’dippedbelow 50, registering 49.4 and 46.8 respectivelyin the month. The new orders indexdroppedto49.2in January from51.0 in December.The neworders indexof ‘large enterprises’stayed inthe expansionary zone,registering 50.6inJanuary.Meanwhile, thenew orders indicesof‘medium enterprises’and‘smallenterprises’stayedinthecontractionaryzone, registering49.9 and45.0 respectivelyinthe month. The new export ordersindexdeclinedto 46.4 in January from48.3 in December.Thenew export orders indicesof‘largeenterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and‘smallenterprises’allstayedbelowthecritical 50-mark, registering45.7,47.3and47.8respectively inJanuary. The backlogs of orders indexedged downto45.6 in January from45.9 in December.Thebacklogsof orders indicesof‘large enterprises’, ‘medium enterprises’and ‘smallenterprises’allremainedbelowtheneutral level of 50,registering48.8, 44.7and39.4respectivelyinJanuary. The stocks of finished goods indexdecreasedto46.5 in January from47.9 in December.The stocks of finished goods indicesof ‘largeenterprises’,‘medium enterprises’ and‘smallenterprises’allstayed inthecontractionary zone, registering48.1,45.2and44.4respectivelyinJanuary. The stocks of major inputs indexdroppedto47.7 in January from48.3 in December. Themajor inputsindicesof‘largeenterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and‘smallenterprises’allremainedbelowthecritical 50-mark,registering48.8,49.0and43.2respectively inJanuary. The purchases of inputs indexwent downto49.2 in January from51.5 in December.The purchases of inputs indexof ‘large enterprises’stayedinthe expansionary zone,registering 50.8inJanuary. Meanwhile, thepurchases of inputsindicesof‘mediumenterprises’ and‘small enterprises’stayedin the contractionary zone, registering49.7and 44.6respectivelyinthe month. The imports indexdeclinedto48.1 in January from49.3 in December.Theimportsindicesof‘large enterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and‘small enterprises’allstayedbelowthe neutral level of50, registering48.5,47.0and48.3respectively inJanuary. The input prices indexincreasedto49.5 in January from48.2 in December. Theinputpricesindicesof‘large enterprises’and‘mediumenterprises’remainedbelowthecritical50-mark,registering48.8and49.2respectivelyinJanuary.Meanwhile, the input pricesindex of ‘small enterprises’ rose above 50, registering51.4 in the month. Theex-factory prices indexwent upto47.4 in January from46.7 in December.1Theex-factory prices indicesof‘largeenterprises’,‘mediumenterprises’and‘smallenterprises’allstayedbelowtheneutral level of50,registering48.0, 46.3and47.3respectivelyinJanuary. The employment indexcame in at48.1inJanuary,the same as in the previous month.Theemployment indicesof‘largeenterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and ‘smallenterprises’all stayedinthecontractionaryzone, registering47.9, 48.6and47.7respectivelyinJanuary. The suppliers’ delivery time indexfellto50.3 in January from50.9 in December.Areading above 50 implies faster delivery; below 50, slower delivery. The suppliers’delivery time indices of ‘large enterprises’, ‘medium enterprises’ and ‘small enterprises’registered50.4,49.8and50.8respectively inJanuary. The business expectations indexroseto55.3 in January from53.3 in December.2Thebusiness expectations indices of ‘large enterprises’,‘medium enterprises’and ‘smallenterprises’registered57.6, 54.3and51.2respectively inJanuary. CFLP 中國物流與採購聯合會 ChinaFederat