XT…战略远见和创新剧本

A hands-on guide for modeling,designing, and leading yourcompany's next radical innovation Playbook forStrategic Foresightand Innovation SponsorsdĞŬĞƐ͕ƚŚĞ&ŝŶŶŝƐŚ&ƵŶĚŝŶŐŐĞŶĐLJĨŽƌdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂŶĚ/ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ Research Partners PlaybookDevelopment TeamTamara Carleton sĞƐĂ,ĂƌŵĂĂŬŽƌƉŝ>ĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨ/ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ >ĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ /ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ>ĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉŽĂƌĚ>> hŶŝƚĞĚ^ƚĂƚĞƐ >ĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨ/ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ>ĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ William Cockayne&ŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚΘ/ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJhŶŝƚĞĚ^ƚĂƚĞƐ dƵŝũĂKŝŬĂƌŝŶĞŶ>ĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨ/ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ >ĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ art coordination>ĂƵƌĂDĞůůĂŶĞŶ >ĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨ/ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ>ĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ ŶƫͲ:ƵƐƐŝdĂŚǀĂŶĂŝŶĞŶ>ĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨ/ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ>ĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ ^ĂŬƵ:͘DćŬŝŶĞŶ/ŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚdĂŵƉĞƌĞhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ Graphic design and layoutAnna Raikkonen ŶŬĂƌĂĞƐŝŐŶ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ WĞŬŬĂĞƌŐ/ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ/ŶƐƟƚƵƚĞ ĂůƚŽhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ&ŝŶůĂŶĚ Playbook overview &Žƌ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚŽƉŝĐƐ͕ ǁĞ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ŵƵůƟƉůĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĂŶĚƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐ͕ƐƚĞƉͲďLJͲƐƚĞƉŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ͕ ƟƉƐ͕ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ͕ ĐĂƐĞ ƐƚƵĚŝĞƐ͕ĂŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ͘ dŚĞ ŵĂƚĞƌŝĂů ŝƐ ĚŝǀŝĚĞĚ ŝŶƚŽŵƵůƟƉůĞĐŚĂƉƚĞƌƐĨŽƌĨĂƐƚĞƌůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĂŶĚƵƐĞ͘ Welcome to a guide for thestrategic manager, the personwho is responsible for innovation—^OL[OLY[OPZTLHUZÄUKPUN[OLnext market, describing thefuture customer, or developing anamazing team who can reliably takenew visions to new markets. How to use it ůů ƚŚĞ ŵĂƚĞƌŝĂů ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉůĂLJŬŝƐ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ ďĞ ƉƌĂĐƚŝĐĂů ĂŶĚƐƚƌĂŝŐŚƚĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ƐĞůĨͲŐƵŝĚĞĚůĞĂƌŶĞƌ͘ dŚŽƐĞ ůŽŽŬŝŶŐ ĨŽƌ ƋƵŝĐŬƐŽůƵƚŝŽŶƐĐĂŶƐƚĂƌƚĂŶLJǁŚĞƌĞ͘dŚŽƐĞůŽŽŬŝŶŐ ƚŽ ďƵŝůĚ ĂŶ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞĚ ĂŶĚƌĞƉĞĂƚĂďůĞƉƌĂĐƚŝĐĞǁŝůůǁĂŶƚƚŽƐƚĂƌƚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ďĞŐŝŶŶŝŶŐ ƚŽ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ƚŚĞďƌŽĂĚĞƌĨƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬ͘DƵůƟƉůĞƌĞĂĚLJͲƚŽͲƵƐĞƚĞŵƉůĂƚĞƐĂƌĞ Strategic focustĞ ĨŽĐƵƐ ŽŶ ƌĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ͘ tŚLJ ƌĂĚŝĐĂů͍ ZĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ĂďŽƵƚĐŚĂŶŐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ŵĂŐŶŝƚƵĚĞ ŽĨ LJŽƵƌ ĞīŽƌƚ͕ĞŝƚŚĞƌŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨŚŽǁLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĞƐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ Žƌ ŝŶ ƚĞƌŵƐ ŽĨƚŚĞ ŝŵƉĂĐƚ LJŽƵ ǁŽƵůĚ ůŝŬĞ ƚŽ ƐĞĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚ͘tĞĂƐƐƵŵĞLJŽƵĂƌĞƐĞƌŝŽƵƐĂďŽƵƚŵĂŬŝŶŐďŝŐĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ͘DŽƐƚĐĂƐĞƐŽĨƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƌĞůLJŽŶĂďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŝŶŶĞǁƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ͕ĂŶĚƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚƐĂƌĞŽŌĞŶďŝŐďĞƚƐ͘ Benefit to youdŚŝƐ ƉůĂLJŬ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞƐ ƚǁŽ ĞƐƐĞŶƟĂů ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚ ĂƐ ǁŽƌŬƐŚĞĞƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ĐĂŶƵƐĞ ĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJ͕ ƉƌŝŶƚ ŽƵƚ͕ Žƌ ƉĂƐƚĞ ŝŶƚŽLJŽƵƌƉƌĞĨĞƌƌĞĚƐŽŌǁĂƌĞ͘tŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ůĞĂƌŶ ŚĞƌĞ ǁŝůů ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ƚŽƉŝĐƐ͗ͻ ,ŽǁƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚ ďĞĐŽŵĞƐĂŶĞǁďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ͕ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ͕ŽƌƐĞƌǀŝĐĞ͕ĂŶĚͻ ,ŽǁƚŽďƵŝůĚĂŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƚŚĂƚƐƵƉƉŽƌƚƐƚŚĞŽŶŐŽŝŶŐĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝĚĞĂƐ͘ ĐŽĂĐŚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶƐƉŝƌĞ ƚŚŽƐĞ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ LJŽƵ͕ĂƐǁĞůůĂƐĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌŽǁŶĞīŽƌƚƐŝŶƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂŶĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ͘ TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. The Foresight FrameworkWe introduce a comprehensive framework[OH[VMMLYZHZ[Y\J[\YLKHWWYVHJO[VÄUKthe big idea.9 Chapter 5. SolutionThe White Spots, Paper Mockups, andChange Path methods turn your idea intoa tangible artifact and plan.124 Chapter 6. TeamThe Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and*YV^K*SV]LYZTL[OVKZOLSW`V\ÄUKand keep the right people engaged in yourpursuit of radical innovation.165 Chapter 2. How to StartDiscover the different types of innovationpaths, people, and industry contexts tohelp you start in the right place with theright mindset. 29 Chapter 7. VisionThe Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test,HUK7H[OÄUKLYZTL[OVKZZL[[OLYPNO[organizational vision to direct your team’sefforts.200 Chapter 3. PerspectiveThe Context Map, Progression Curves, andJanus Cones methods broaden your viewof the problem space, helping you to betteranticipate the future.58 Chapter 4. OpportunityThe Generational Arcs, Future User, andFuturetelling methods identify your futurecustomers in terms of macro, micro, andnarrative views.91 Supporting material includes a list ofreadings, suggested data sources, andother related items. A variety of case studies Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into howvarious organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning. 10 WORKSHOPLESSONS FROMAN INDUSTRYVETERAN^ĞĞǁŚĂƚǁŽƌŬƐĂŶĚǁŚĂƚĚŽĞƐŶΖƚǁŚĞŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐĨŽƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŶŐďŝŐŝĚĞĂƐ͘їƉĂŐĞϱϯ SEEKINGVISIONARIESAT DARPAhŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŚŽǁZWĂƩƌĂĐƚƐĂĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƚLJƉĞŽĨƉĞƌƐŽŶĨŽƌƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂƚĂĨĞĚĞƌĂůĂŐĞŶĐLJ͘їƉĂŐĞϭϳϳ HOW YLE DEFINEDA NEW FORESIGHTCAPABILITY&ŽůůŽǁŽŶĞƚĞĂŵ͛ƐƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐĂƐƚŚĞLJĚĞƐŝŐŶĂƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚŽƌLJŵŽĚĞůŽĨĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ͘їƉĂŐĞϭϱϴ A SECOND FUTUREFOR UBICOM'ĂŝŶĂŶŝŶͲĚĞƉƚŚ FUTURE VISIONFOR PAPER>ĞĂƌŶŚŽǁŽŶĞŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƌĞƐƚĂƌƚĞĚĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůůLJƵŶĨƌƵŝƞƵůƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĨŽƌŝƚƐĐŽƌĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ͘їƉĂŐĞϮϰ ůŽŽŬĂƚƵƉĚĂƟŶŐƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĨŽƌŽŶĞŽĨdĞŬĞƐ͛ůĂƌŐĞƐƚĂŶĚŵŽƐƚƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐ͘їƉĂŐĞϳϴ DARPA’S LESSONSFOR INDUSTRY>ĞĂƌŶƐĞǀĞŶǁĂLJƐĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐĐĂŶďĞŶĞĮƚĨƌŽŵZ