弹性公共政策的战略远见工具包：支持可持续和面向未来的公共政策的综合远见方法

A Comprehensive Foresight Methodology to SupportSustainable and Future-Ready Public Policy This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinionsexpressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Membercountries of the OECD. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status ofor sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeliauthorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights,East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2025),StrategicForesight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy: A Comprehensive Foresight Methodology to SupportSustainable and Future-Ready Public Policy, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/bcdd9304-en. ISBN 978-92-64-92060-6 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-35641-2 (HTML) © OECD 2025 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Thiswork is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Attribution– you must cite the work. Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event ofany discrepancy between the original work and the translation, only the text of original work should be considered valid. Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by theOECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this adaptation should not be reported as representing the officialviews of the OECD or of its Member countries. Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you areresponsible for obtaining permission from the third party and for any claims of infringement. You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorsesyour use of the work. Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration(PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shall be Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. PREFACEPREFACE In a rapidly changing world characterised by high uncertainty, the need for evidence-informedanticipatory policy making is greater than ever. The increasingly interconnected nature ofglobal systems means that disruptions in one system can cause flow-on shocks in several others.Understanding possible future disruptions, and how they might interact with environmental,technological, economic, social and governance factors, is crucial to effective policy making.In a rapidly changing world characterised by high uncertainty, the need for evidence-informedanticipatory policy making is greater than ever. The increasingly interconnected nature ofglobal systems means that disruptions in one system can cause flow-on shocks in several others.Understanding possible future disruptions, and how they might interact with environmental,technological, economic, social and governance factors, is crucial to effective policy making. Strategic foresight offers a methodology for anticipating, exploring and shaping the future in a structured andsystematic way.It is vital for effective decision-making on complex issues. The OECD’s long-standing commitment tostrategic foresight reflects the importance the Organisation places on anticipating trends, risks and emerging challenges andopportunities, and using these to broaden thinking about the future.Strategic foresight offers a methodology for anticipating, exploring and shaping the future in a structured andsystematic way.It is vital for effective decision-making on complex issues. The OECD’s long-standing commitment tostrategic foresight reflects the importance the Organisation places on anticipating trends, risks and emerging challenges andopportunities, and using these to broaden thinking about the future. This toolkit is designed to support countries and organisations in using strategic foresight to design and preparepublic policies for a range of possible futures.Underpinned by research and analysis on possible future disruptions, thetoolkit provides (i) a practical methodology to bolster the resilience of policy strategies, (ii) background research on possibledisruptions to the global policy landscape, and (iii) facilitation guides to assist foresight practitioners in using the toolkit. Thiswork aims to reduce the risks of costly resource misallocation or counterproductive efforts, as well as optimise op