零售业的未来

Alan Gilesis an Associate Fellow of SaïdBusiness School, University of Oxford wherehe chairs the Advisory Board of the OxfordInstitute of Retail Management. He is also anon-executive director of Rentokil Initial plc,Perpetual Income & Growth Investment Trust plcand the Competition & Markets Authority, havingbeen a non-executive director of the Office ofFair Trading from 2007. Alan has extensive retail sector experience,having been Chairman of Fat Face fromSeptember 2006 until July 2013. Earlier in hiscareer he formed HMV Group as Chief Executivein 1998 as a leveraged buy-out and led theGroup through its London Stock ExchangeIPO in 2002 before retiring from the Group inSeptember 2006 to develop a portfolio of non-executive and teaching roles. He graduated in Physics from the University ofOxford and holds a Masters in Managementdegree from The Graduate School of Business,Stanford University, California. The Brands Lecture15thNovember 2016 Never mind thequality, feel thepersonalisation.The future ofretailing Alan GilesSaïd Business School,University of Oxford and Scandinavian case studies, where their shareof the food market is between 30% and 43%,suggest that this structural shift has by no meansrun its course. This lecture examines the structural challengesfacing retailers, considers their principal strategicresponses and then concludes by setting outsome of the things we will see in the future. personalisation. The future of retailingIt’s been a very sobering year for British retail,with some remarkably high profile issues suchas scrutiny from parliamentary committees andwhere, more broadly, retailers can be forgiven forfeeling that, rightly or wrongly, they are blamedfor society’s ills. But in truth most retailers aremuch more focused on the structural changesfacing the sector. The second structural change is e-commerce:globally up 20% this year, with more matureregions still showing double digit growth. 7% ofall retail sales globally are online. As a result thevalue of sales through stores in the UK is at bestflat, with the consequent squeeze on profitability. ... most retailers are[...] focussed on thestructural changesfacing the sector. China is now the largest e-commerce market inthe world, but online has greater penetration inthe UK than any market; in 2013 it was 14% andtoday it’s closer to 20%. There are many reasonsfor this leadership, including UK retailers’early adoption of digital technology, greaterpenetration of credit cards and a push factorfrom crowded British high streets and shoppingcentres. In my view pureplay online channelsare good news for brands with high awarenessand the “elastic shelves” of such retailers allowsgood opportunities for small brands to get listed.However, the problem is how do consumersdiscover such brands? The first is the relentless rise of limitedassortment discounters. We’ve been here before,of course, with the first wave of attack fromAldi, Lidl and Netto in the twentieth century notamounting to much. But the aftermath of the2008 financial crisis prompted many consumersto try these ultra-low cost formats. In the lasttwo years alone, the big four supermarkets havelost nearly 3 percentage points of market share,primarily to Aldi and Lidl, and this pattern ofestablished mainstream retailers losing groundto discounters can be seen in most productsectors and most geographies. But the discounters aren’t standing still.Poundland has moved away from its single priceformat at the new Poundland & More store inSlough, which is allowing it to move into newcategories like frozen foods. Across Europe,Aldi and Lidl are moving to larger store formats,wider ranges and better presentation. Thesemoves to broaden ranges are a huge opportunityfor FMCG brands, but will they blur the basis ofdifferentiation of the discounters? The German for example Arden Reed, a New York custom suitretailer that goes to Manhattan office locationsin a van equipped with a 3D body scanner to taketheir orders. Just to put a figure on the scaleof disruptive competition, McKinsey estimatesthat in earlier decades the growth of Walmartprompted other retailers to remove 33% fromtheir cost base and that now the subsequentgrowth of Amazon is forcing a further 15-20%reduction. Last, but not least, online access hasnot only eliminated the issue of geographicaldistance from limiting consumers’ options buthas given them unrivalled price transparency andbargaining power. Globally we will continue to see rapid growthin this channel. The chart above shows allB2C sales, not just grocery, but neverthelessillustrates who the big players are. FMCG brandswill need to develop strategies to seize the growthopportunities in these ten organisations. Technology is driving change on three fronts.For centuries retailers have been early adoptersof new technology and the accelerating pace ofchange has heralded huge efficiency benefitsacross supply chain, store operations and ofcourse customer insight. Secondly technol