2025年基础设施投资展望

Managementsummary optimistic for a recovery in the coming months. Following resilient performancein 2022 and a significant blow to infrastructure deal activity in 2023, there wereexpectations of an uptick in activity in 2024. However, continued challengingfinancing conditions resulted in further declines in deal count and deal size in 2024,in contrast to the activity uptick seen in private equity buyouts in 2024. Despite the Contents decline in globalinfrastructure increase ininfrastructure 86% of surveyrespondentsexpect the Infrastructure M&Adevelopment Macro headwinds that started blowing in 2022 and picked up speed in 2023 failed to subsidein 2024, further impacting infrastructure M&A activity. In 2024, global infrastructure M&A dealcount declined 8% year-over-year (y-o-y), while the average deal size dropped 14%. This further decline in 2024 contrasts with what most respondents in our Infrastructure Investment Despite a soft start to 2025, Europe and North America accounted for two-thirds of the global deal count in 2024.Their share in the global deal count declined by 3 pp y-o-y as M&A activity recovered in APAC.In fact, APAC was the only region where the deal count increased in 2024 (by 16% y-o-y), Despite a decline in the deal count in 2024, energy remains the largest infrastructure sector,accounting for 69% of deals. Almost all sectors were impacted by the continued macroheadwinds, with the steepest decline in utilities (~33% y-o-y). However, the digital and social CInfrastructure deal count and average size by sector While the slowdown had a marked impact on infrastructure fundraising in 2023 (which halvedfrom its 2022 peak of USD 154 bn), fundraising levels in fact increased by 14% y-o-y in 2024.Though fundraising for the core+ and opportunistic strategies declined, this was more than Current sentimentand outlook for To gauge investors' expectations for infrastructure investments in 2025, we surveyedexperienced investment bankers and fund managers. 86% of respondents expect growth inthe infrastructure deal count in 2025, up from 77% in 2024. While overall sentiment is stronger Survey respondents' profile overview Respondents expect deal count to grow across all regions, with particularly positive sentimentacross Europe and North America, where 78% and 79% of respondents, respectively, expectgrowth. Respondents expect slight to moderate growth in Europe and Asia-Pacific (though Respondents specified the availability of attractive acquisition targets as the most impactfulfactor influencing infrastructure investments, followed by the macroeconomic situation andfinancing availability. While geopolitical uncertainty is expected to remain, and potentially Sector outlook We further surveyed the participants on various infrastructure sectors 1. Investment focus:Given the current macroeconomic environment,we wanted to know how participants expect their investment focusto change across the core, core+ and value-add strategies. On a broader 2. Future attractiveness:In addition, we wanted to understand whichinfrastructure assets are deemed more attractive in 2025 than they were We now delve into each of the sectors, presenting the output of the survey 3.1/Energy In 2024, the energy sector remained the leading segment in infrastructure in terms of dealcount. In general, the sector suffered less than other infrastructure sectors, as deal flow JEnergy infrastructure – survey results Survey respondents expressed a broadly positive and improving outlook for energy-relateddealmaking in 2025, with a clear preference for core+ and value-add strategies. Notably, Marking a notable shift from the previous two years, heat electrification emerged as themost attractive energy investment theme, with 60% of respondents identifying it as a topasset class. This transition is driven by several reinforcing factors. As governments move to Energy efficiency schemes also saw a surge in investor interest, buoyed by their ability todeliver immediate carbon savings at relatively low capital intensity. These schemes are Meanwhile, more traditional favorites such as biogas and grid-scale battery storageretained their position in the top five most attractive asset classes. However, energy storage/ CCUS remains a relevant, albeit not crucial, topic for investors, with 25% of respondentsidentifying it as among the most attractive assets – this is likely because the economic caseremains immature, with a lack of clarity on government support schemes and the low cost At the other end of the spectrum, asset categories that appear less appealing toinvestors in 2025 include long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies like compressedair energy storage (CAES)/liquid-to-air systems, nuclear – small modular reactors (SMRs) As the energy transition matures, investor focus is clearly shifting toward scalable,economically viable and policy-aligned assets. Heat electrification and energy efficiency KCCUS deep dive