OBBBA后北美轻型汽车电气化的情景

Roland Berger's 2025 Q3 NorthAmerican light vehicle xEV forecast AUTHORS BRANDON BOYLESenior Partner The policy environment has dramatically shifted in the United States,with the second Trump administration rolling back several incentivesand enforcement mechanisms that previously supported battery ISAAC CHANPartner DAN KUBISPartner ERIN SOWERBYPartner KYLE GORDONPrincipal However, the future is still electric and Roland Berger expects NorthAmerican BEV penetration to reach approximately 50% by 2040 as Despite a steady cadence of new launches from US and foreign OEMs, BEV salesrose only 5% year over year in the first half of 2025. A temporary surge before the end "With the rollback of regulations andincentives, consumer preferences willbecome one of the primary drivers inBEV adoption in the US, and state-level BRANDON BOYLESenior Partner Since the inauguration of the second Trump administration, the regulatory backdrophas become increasingly uncertain and fragmented, leading to lower BEV sales. Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) framework, eroding BEV affordability for consumers anddiminishing regulatory pressure on OEMs to accelerate electrification. In parallel, The net effect will be a near-term bulge in BEV demand before incentives disappear,followed by a pullback of adoption as affordability and regulatory pressure ease.This shift is not unique to the United States; it echoes a broader pattern seen in other "OEMs are pivoting toward hybrids toenhance profitability while stillreducing emissions, but will keep ISAAC CHANPartner As regulatory influence wanes, BEV adoption will increasingly be steered by OEM OEMs are expected to refocus portfolios towards higher-margin vehicles amid fewerincentives and tighter BEV pricing flexibility. Lower-volume BEV models are likely to bephased out while HEVs and PHEVs gain traction as a more profitable bridge Simultaneously, consumer preferences will be increasingly critical. Adoptioncontinues despite growing political polarization and politicization of BEVs acrossRed, Blue and swing states, signaling broader acceptance. Going forward, regional "Suppliers must accelerate costreduction, standardization andstrategic partnerships as near-term BEVvolumes soften – those who don't adapt PartnerUnited States Scenarios for BEV adoption in North America Roland Berger presents three regional-scaled scenarios for North American BEVadoption: Upside Case, Base Case, and Downside Case. Across these scenarios, the "Differences in consumer preferenceswill lead to a wide range in electricvehicle adoption rates and the need for ERIN SOWERBYPartner In the Roland Berger Base scenario, near-term BEV adoption slows due to laxedemissions regulations and penalties through 2027. OEMs respond by increasing BEVmodel availability in anticipation of future regulatory measures, though at a slower Roland Berger Downside case: Market-led stall In the Roland Berger Downside scenario, BEV adoption declines in the near-term asOEMs focus on models with higher profitability. Emissions regulations are not "Even with near-term headwinds, BEVadoption is poised to continue growingin the long run; ongoing improvements KYLE GORDONPrincipal Key takeaways The evolving regulatory landscape and market dynamics presentdistinct challenges and opportunities for automotive industry Traditional manufacturers must manage a complex transition to a multi-powertrain strategy, balancing internal combustion engines, hybrids, andbattery electric vehicles. While BEV programs remain critical for global For suppliers: Suppliers will encounter a more cautious market environment withlower near-term BEV volume expectations. This will drive areassessment of electrification investments and make cost reduction, In conclusion, the North American automotive future remains electric,but without renewed regulatory support, that transition will be delayed. BRANDON BOYLESenior Partnerbrandon.boyle@rolandberger.com ISAAC CHANPartnerisaac.chan@rolandberger.com DANIEL KUBISPartnerdaniel.kubis@rolandberger.com ERIN SOWERBYPartnererin.sowerby@rolandberger.com KYLE GORDONPrincipal This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act according to anyinformation provided in this publication without receiving specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH © 2025 ROLAND BERGER GMBH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.