告知净零工业路径

INFORMING NET ZEROINDUSTRIAL PATHWAYSPublic Disclosure Authorized Meriem Ait Ali Slimane, Rishabh ChoudharyPublic Disclosure Authorized INFORMING NET ZEROINDUSTRIAL PATHWAYS Meriem Ait Ali Slimane, Rishabh Choudhary A reproducibility package is available for this book inthe Reproducible Research Repository athttps://reproducibility.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/study/FR_IND_2025_377 Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes,or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other informationshown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal statusof any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authoredby others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the contentof their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as longas full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Informing Net Zero IndustrialPathways. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. TABLEOF CONTENTS AcknowledgmentsviAbstract1Key Findings2Informing Net Zero Industrial Pathways3Study Objectives, Approach, and Methodology5Sectoral Decomposition of Industrial Emissions10Detailed Economic and Emissions Footprint of Firms, by Size12Energy mix, emissions mix, and coal consumption14Emissions mix of top emitting sectors: MSMEs vs. large firms16State-owned enterprises19The unique status of MSMEs21Targeting Support for Net Zero: Where Are the Emitters?25Deep Dive: The Textile Industry Faces a Competitiveness Threat34Why are textiles a substantial emitter of CO2?36The electrification paradox: Transitioning textiles from coal to electric boilers increases emissionsin the absence of renewable energy38An example of current measures to green the textile sector in Gujarat39 Industrial Greening Simulations40Grid electricity is more carbon intensive than fossil fuels40Greening the electricity grid40Conclusions and Recommendations41Conclusions on industrial emissions profiles41Recommendations on data quality and further analysis43 Annex 1: Methodology44 Annex 2: Annual Survey of Industry: 2019/20 Versus 2022/23 Annex 3: Definition of MSMEs References50 Acknowledgements This paper was co-authored by Meriem Ait Ali Slimane (lead economist, South AsiaProsperity) and Rishabh Choudhary (economist, Macro, Trade, and InvestmentGlobal Practice), with research contributions from World Bank consultants SaloniKhurana, Jaeyeon Park, and Abir Hasan, and contributions from Harsh Jhanjaria(senior private sector specialist, South Asia Prosperity). Theteam thanks Ivan Jaques(senior energy specialist,South Asia,WorldBank), Thomas Kerr (lead climate specialist, South Asia, World Bank), SiddharthSharma (lead economist, Office of the Chief Economist South Asia, World Bank),Ali Hasanbeigi (CEO, Global Efficiency Intelligence) and Shoibal Chakravarty (seniorresearcher, Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore) fortheir peer reviews. The team also thanks Stephane Hallegatte (chief economist,Climate Change, World Bank) and Laurent Gonnet (lead financial sector specialist,World Bank) for their guidance. The report has benefitted from consultations with the following institutions andorganizations in India: The Ministry of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises; theMinistry of Textiles, NITI Aayog, the Bureau of Energy Efficiency, The Energy andResource Institute (TERI), the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), andthe Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Steven B. Kennedy edited the report. Maria Lopez did the report layout. ABSTRACT Designing effective Net Zero industrial pathways requires a comprehensiveunderstanding of the key drivers of emissions. To gain such an understanding,this study proposes a novel approach to estimating and monitoring industria