2026 年人工智能将如何演变

出⾊研究能⼒、并有真实机会赢得AI竞赛的AI开发者的声望。OpenAI will hit its goal of releasingan automated AI research intern bySeptember 2026, but the intern willdisappoint.In October, OpenAI chiefscientistJakub Pachockisaidon alivestream that he expects thecompany to have AI systems that cando AI research on the level of aresearch intern by September nextyear, and systems that can do moreadvanced AI research by March 2028. Iexpect that OpenAI will teasesomethingin September next year that name.OpenAI将在2026年9⽉前实现发布⾃动化AI研究实习⽣的⽬标，但该实习⽣将令⼈失望。今年10⽉，OpenAI⾸席科学家Jakub Pachocki在⼀次直播中表示，他预计公司到明年9⽉将拥有能够达到研究实习⽣⽔平的AI系统，到2028年3⽉将拥有能够进⾏更⾼级AI研究的系统。我预计OpenAI会在明年9⽉展示⼀些他们称之为“⾃动化AI研究实习⽣”的东⻄……然⽽，这项技术究竟有多令⼈印象深刻，则是另⼀回事。值得注意的是，OpenAI将其实现AI研究⾃动化进程中的第⼀个承诺⾥程碑设定为“研究实习⽣”，因为这个定义⾮常模糊。毕竟，⼈类研 tocharge $20,000 per month for PhD-level agents? TheChatGPT-maker mayhave gotten ahead of itself. In 2025, so-called AI agents, or AI software thatcan automate tasks for users on theirdevices,fell short. Many companieslowered their expectations for suchsoftware, and though pricing varies,they tend to be a whole lot cheaperthan $20,000. As AI technologybecomes more reliable at handlinglonger-duration tasks, we might seerising prices for AI agents from themajor labs in 2026. Let’s start with alower price point of $1,000, though.⼀家主要的AI实验室将发布⼀款⽉费超过1,000美元的智能体。还记得OpenAI曾计划为博⼠级智能体每⽉收取20,000美元吗？这家ChatGPT的开发商可能操之过急了。在2025年，所谓的AI智能体 1,000美元这个较低的价格点开始预测。Google’s Gemini will catch up withOpenAI’s ChatGPT when it comes toweekly active usersWho said wedidn’t do bold predictions! Thisprediction comes with a big “but,”however. I believe that if Googlecontinues playing it safe and keeping its AI-forward features, like itsGeminichatbot andAI Mode, separate fromthe averageGoogle Search Ilya Sutskever）表示，现有的技术⽆法带我们实现超⼈⼯智能，因为它⽆法像⼈类那样从现实世界的经验中即时学习（即持续学习）。相反，模型开发将继续依赖海量数据和计算资源，并经历极其耗时的 任何⼀家取得突破，对英伟达来说都将是坏消息。持续学习所需的训练数据和算⼒将远少于现有的训练流程，这意味着对英伟达热⻔芯⽚的需求将会减少。