Morning Insight: 2025年12月31日

Morning Insight:December 31, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Copper:Prices have resumed their upward move after a pullback, with the On the supply side, Chinese copper smelters have finalized the 2026 long-term benchmark TC for copper concentrates with Chilean miner Antofagastaat USD 0/ton, marking the first time in history that a“zero treatment On the demand side, expectations for a long-term recovery remain strong,and the consumption logic tied to emerging sectors such as data centers On the supply side, Chinese copper smelters have finalized the 2026 long-term benchmark TC for copper concentrates with Chilean miner Antofagasta “Vigorously Promoting the Optimization and Upgrading of TraditionalIndustries”emphasizes preventing blind investment and disorderly On the demand side, expectations for a long-term recovery remain strong,and the consumption logic tied to emerging sectors such as data centersis difficult to invalidate. Data center construction is a long-term Key risks lie in the possibility that elevated prices significantlysuppress domestic demand, leading to rising inventories and weaker spot Live Hogs:Spot hog prices rebounded sharply in late December, mainlydriven by a structural shortage of standard-weight hogs following heavypre–Winter Solstice sell-offs. The overall change in total inventory spot market sentiment to a short-term peak and shifting supply pressure Given the faster-than-usual slaughter pace in December, large producers’January marketing plans may be slightly reduced. However, with nearly 10 At current levels, live hog prices have risen too quickly, and downstreamresistance has already emerged, forming a negative feedback loop. As Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China has allocated 62.5 billion yuan (about 8.88 billion U.S. dollars) in ultra-long special treasury bond funds in advance to supportthe trade-ins of consumer goods for 2026, the country's top economic The funds--the first to support the trade-in program for 2026--wereinitiated by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and The move aims to ensure policy continuity and meet surging consumption demand during the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival holidays, theNDRC said, noting that it will guide local authorities to leverage the Also on Tuesday, the NDRC and the finance ministry issued a jointannouncement, detailing policies and measures for the implementation of According to the announcement, consumers will continue to receivesubsidies through trade-in programs for products ranging from automobiles In one example, consumers can enjoy a 15 percent subsidy when purchasinga Grade-I energy-efficient home appliance product, to a maximum of 1,500 The consumer goods trade-in program for the purchase of new digitalproducts will also be expanded to include smart products such as AI As for equipment renewals, subsidy programs will be expanded to includeelevators for installation in old residential buildings, equipment used The expansion of domestic demand is set to top China's major economicpriorities next year, according to the recent Central Economic Work 2. China will lower the value-added tax (VAT) levy rate from 5 percent to3 percent for individuals selling housing purchased less than two years fiscal and tax authorities on Tuesday. The new policy, jointly released by the Ministry of Finance and the StateTaxation Administration, further clarifies that sales of housing For VAT related to individual housing sales that has not been declared orpaid before Jan. 1, 2026, the announcement noted that the new provisions 3. China's grain purchases totaled 415 million tonnes in 2025, remainingabove the 400-million-tonne mark for a third straight year, according to More than 90 percent of purchases were market-driven, supported by Grain purchases are an important part of China's macro control measures,as is the country's policy of setting a minimum grain purchase price, as About 22.5 million tonnes of wheat and rice were purchased under the China's grain output hit a record high of 714.88 million tonnes in 2025, Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), China willstrengthen its grain purchases and reserves further, and keep grain Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. I