美国经济：10-11月就业报告——扭曲背后的韧性

October/November employment: Payroll employment decreased in October and rose inNovember amid solid private sector prints and DOGE-relateddeclines in government employment. The unemploymentrate increased to 4.6% but the slack is likely exaggerated by Marc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, US Jonathan Millar+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.com Pooja Sriram+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.com The long-awaited October/November employment report painted a mixed picture of the US Nonfarm payroll employment decreased 105k in October and rebounded 64k inNovember, amid solid private sector prints and declines in federal government Colin Johanson+1 212 526 8536colin.johanson@barclays.com The household survey pointed to increased slack, likely reflecting in part the fork-in-the-road option and private-sector jobsaffectedby the shutdown. The unemployment rate roseto 4.6% in November, reflecting an increase in labor market reentrants and job losers on Strong increases in payroll income in October and November (+0.5% m/m) implied a 5.0% 3msaar increase in private payroll income that should support consumer spending in Q4. We retain our baseline that the FOMC will deliver two 25bp cuts in 2026.Today'semployment release give us more conviction about a pause at the January meeting, given theresilient private sector payroll print. We expect the next rate cut to take place at the earliest in Employment situation data were mixed, with employment estimates coming in somewhatstronger than expected, while the unemployment rate also rose more than expected.Dueto the federal government shutdown, which lasted from October 1 to November 12, the BLS Nonfarm payroll employment decreased 105k in October and rebounded 64k in November,slightly surpassing expectations for November(Barclays: +50k; consensus: +50k), and placingthe 3mma at 22k/m,afteraccounting for the 11k downward revision to the September print(108k) (Figure 1). As expected, the fluctuations were mainly due to federal government accepted the deferred resignationofferdropped from federal payrolls in October (Figure2). Excluding the government sector, private payrolls posted solid gains in October (+52k) andNovember (+69k), placing the 3mma for the private sector at 75k/m, well above the 13k/m The household survey points to a widening in labor market slack, though special factorscould have exaggerated the increase.The unemployment rate (U3) rose to a thin 4.6%(4.564%), up 12bp since September and 55bp since the beginning of the year (Figure 4). Thisreflects another notable expansion in the labor force (+323k) since September, which more thanoffseta 96k increase in household employment during the same period. These gains boostedthe labor force participation rate by 0.1pp, to 62.5%, reflecting higher participation by workersaged 16-24 (+0.4pp) and primary age workers aged 25-54 (+0.1pp) (Figure 12). Reentrants andjob losers on temporarylayoffcontributed respectively 17bp and 10bp to the increase in theunemployment rate (Figure 5). This hints that some of the increase in the unemployment rate Looking through monthly fluctuations and the special factors, the labor market appearsresilient.The latest JOLTS survey indicated that demand for labor remained steady at the endof October, and the labor supply continued to increase in recent months, with the participationrate of 16-54 year oldsoffsettingthe slowing in labor supply stemming from immigration Meanwhile, strong increases in payroll income in October and November (+0.5% m/m)implied a 5.0% 3m saar increase in private payroll income that should support consumer We retain our baseline that the FOMC will deliver two 25bp cuts in 2026.Today's employment release gives us more conviction about a pause at the January meeting, given theresilient private sector payroll print. We expect the next rate cut to take place at the earliest inMarch, with the unemployment rate little changed, andafterthe FOMC has seen signs thattariff-ledprice increases have peaked, on a m/m basis, and is gaining confidence that inflation is Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Barclays Research Details Average hourly earnings (AHE)softenedto 0.1% m/m (0.136% m/m) in November,afterregistering a firm 0.4% m/m in October. This brings the % y/y reading to 3.5% in November,below the range of 3.7-3.9% registered earlier this year. Looking at multiple wage measures, ourstate-space model, which perceives an inflection point for wages early this year (Figure Recent trends in hours worked and payroll income suggest that households retain morepurchasing power than prior estimates had suggested.The average workweek increased 0.1hours to 34.3 hours. With employment registering a gain in November, hours worked ticked up0.3% m/m, following October's flat reading. Alongside the increase in AHE, these estimatesimply a 0.5% m/m gain in payroll income in November, matching its gain in October (Figure 8). Private sector job gains stre