2026利率展望

2026 Rates Outlook Francis YaredStrategistMatthew RaskinStrategistSoniya SadeeshStrategistBernd VolkStrategistSteven Zeng, CFAStrategistIoannis SokosStrategistGabriele CozziStrategistMingyue XinStrategistMarkus HeiderMacro StrategistAndrew FuStrategist This publication is a compendium of 2026 outlook reports published by the GlobalRates team in recent weeks. 16 December 2025Global Fixed Income Outlook Table Of ContentsBond Market Strategy ........................................................ 3US Rates...........................................................................10EGBs.................................................................................27EUR Swap Spread............................................................33ECB Balance Sheet and EUR Money Market....................37Inflation Strategy..............................................................47G10 Rates Chartpack: December 2025 ............................ 64Covered Bonds and SSA...................................................92Latest Forecasts.............................................................107 Bond Market Strategy 2026 Rates Outlook We expect a mild sell-off in UST and EUR bond markets, with 10Y US Treasuryreaching 4.45% and 10Y Bund reaching 3.1%. Our forecast reflects structuralfactors supporting higher yields that are tempered by the risks and uncertaintyassociated with AI. Francis YaredStrategist+44-20-754-54017francis.yared@db.com Matthew Raskin Our forecast is driven by both structural and cyclical considerations. From astructural perspective, equilibrium interest rates are likely to be meaningfullyhigher than pre-GFC as the supply/demand of savings is shifting globally. Theexpected evolution in the supply/demand of bonds also creates some furtherupside to global term premia. From a cyclical perspective, the global economyshould be transitioning from the negative impact of previously tight monetarypolicy and tariffs to the positive impact of a global fiscal impulse and monetarypolicies which are unlikely to be restrictive. Strategist+1-212-250-1741matthew.raskin@db.com Ioannis SokosStrategist+44-207-5475680ioannis.sokos@db.com Soniya Sadeesh Strategist+44-20-754-73091soniya.sadeesh@db.com From a timing perspective, we assume that the expected repricing higher in yieldsis delayed by the last innings of the negative impact of the US shutdown and tariffsuncertainty. Moreover, our commodity analysts expect a temporary 10% downsideto oil prices in H1 2026, which would be a headwind to any upward repricing inrates. Steven Zeng, CFAStrategist+1-212-250-9373steven.zeng@db.com There are three main sources of risks to our forecast: fiscal policy, oil prices, and lastbut not least AI. Firstly, political execution risk may result in tighter fiscal policy thanwe anticipate. Secondly, the supply shock to oil prices may turn out to be morepersistent than currently expected. Thirdly, AI creates significant two-sided risks.To the upside in yields, a sustained demand in capex and higher productivity wouldsimultaneously absorb excess savings and raise potential growth. To the downsidein yields, AI may have generated excessive investments, and a correction mayweigh on growth and the labour market. AI may also benefit capital more thanlabour, thereby increasing aggregate savings. Finally, its disinflationary impact mayexceed its positive impact on global growth. Andrew FuStrategist+1-212-250-1743andrew-a.fu@db.com Gabriele Cozzi Strategist+44-20-754-17714gabriele.cozzi@db.com Mingyue XinStrategist+44-20-75410002mingyue.xin@db.com Markus HeiderMacro Strategist+44-20-754-52167markus.heider@db.com Note: This note was originally published on24 November 2025 16 December 2025Global Fixed Income Outlook 2026 Rates Outlook Our mild bearish duration view is predicated on two structural factors: (1) theassessment that equilibrium interest rates are likely to be meaningfully higher thantheir post-GFC lows and (2) the remaining upside to global term premia. Whileneutral rates and term premia can in theory move independently, they share somecommon factors. For instance, the evolution of supply/demand of bonds will impactterm premia. It is often overlooked that the closely related supply/demand ofsavings will also impact neutral rates. The evolution of these supply/demand factorsare supportive of higher bond yields. Higher equilibrium interest rates Equilibrium interest rates are impacted by two factors: potential growth and thesupply of versus demand for savings. Market participants typically focus on theformer at the expense of the latter. However, it is well documented that the evolutionof potential growth has only played a relatively minor role in the decline of policyrates post-GFC. Thus, the evolution of the supply/demand of savings is likely to becritical and points towards higher equilibrium interest rates in the years ahead. Post-GFC, the decline in equilibrium interest rates was likely exacerbat