行业周报：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332 Industry News Industry News 1.【Thailand’s Total Exports of Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Up 4.6% YoY in Jan-Nov】 Latest data shows that in the first eleven months of 2025, Thailand’s total exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber)reached 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.Among this volume, exports of standard rubber totaled 1.338 million tons, In the Jan-Nov period, total exports of natural rubber to China hit 0.945 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Specifically,exports of standard rubber to China reached 0.558 million tons, down 12% YoY; exports of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled In the same period, Thailand’s total exports of mixture rubber reached 1.581 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29%; mixture Overall, Thailand’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber reached 4 million tons in the first eleven months,a year-on-year growth of 4.6%; total exports to China hit 2.518 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24% Industry News 2.【ANRPC: Global Natural Rubber Output to Fall 2.6% and Consumption to Drop 1.4% in November】 In its latest November 2025 report, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that global naturalrubber output will decline by 2.6% year-on-year to 1.474 million tons in November, down 1.5% from the previous month; natural In the first eleven months of the year, cumulative global natural rubber output is expected to rise by 2% year-on-year to 13.375 For the full year of 2025, global natural rubber output is forecast to grow by 1.3% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons. Breakdown bycountry/region shows: Thailand (+1.2%), Indonesia (-4.3%), China (+6%), India (+5.6%), Vietnam (-1.3%), Malaysia (-4.2%), Cambodia Global natural rubber consumption for 2025 is projected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year to 15.565 million tons. The consumptionbreakdown is as follows: China (+2.5%), India (+3.4%), Thailand (+6.1%), Indonesia (-19.3%), Malaysia (+2.6%), Vietnam (+1.5%),Sri The report points out that natural rubber prices came under pressure in November due to supply concerns triggered by unstableweather conditions and weak demand. Market sentiment throughout the year has been mixed, with signs of recovery emerging in Industry News 3.【EU Passenger Car Sales Up 2.1% YoY in November】 According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), passenger car sales in the EUrose 2.1% year-on-year to 887,491 units in November 2025. Cumulative sales in the first eleven months of the year climbed 1.4% Despite the solid recent growth momentum, overall sales volume remains well below pre-pandemic levels. In the first eleven monthsof this year, the market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) reached 16.9%, in line with the full-year forecast; however,there is still Hybrid vehicles emerged as the most popular powertrain option among consumers, accounting for a 34.6% market share, with plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) maintaining strong growth momentum. Meanwhile, the combined market share of gasoline and diesel Market trends Futures Prices ➢Rubber futures in both domestic and overseas markets surged sharply this week, with SGX TSR 20 rubber leading Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spread of RU-NR、RU-BR and RU-JPX RSS3 has narrowed, while the price spreads of NR-SGX TSR20 Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢This week, the quoted prices in the imported rubber market edgedup, with traders mainly engaging in position rolling and cargo replacement. The prices of mixture rubber (RMB) for deferred- ➢The spot quoted prices of domestic natural rubber moved upwardin tandem with the futures market. Downstream demand showed Other Spreads: Light and DarkColored ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber has widened, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubberhas narrowed. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢During the week, the domestic supply of butadiene rubber remained at an elevated level, and the key drivers behind the rise in supplier quotesand market prices stemmed from three main factors: market participants'expectations that the destocking of butadiene in January next year wouldsqueeze butadiene rubber production margins, reinforced bottom-up ➢During the week, butadiene rubber futures trended upward withpersistent fluctuations. Meanwhile, the focus of spot market negotiationsmoved gradually higher. Arbitrageurs remained keen on purchasing Capital TrendsOpen Interests/ Warehouse Receipts: RU Supply & Demand Data Supply: ThailandWeather ➢The rainy season in southern Thailand is drawing to a close gradually, with rainfall declining. Supply: China Weather ➢The rainy season has ended in the Hainan and Yunnan rubber-producing regions. The rolling 30-day average precipitation in the production areas of