Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date: 2025/12/28 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Thailand’s Total Exports of Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Up 4.6% YoY in Jan-Nov】 Latest data shows that in the first eleven months of 2025, Thailand’s total exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber)reached 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.Among this volume, exports of standard rubber totaled 1.338 million tons,down 18% YoY; exports of smoked sheet rubber stood at 0.392 million tons, up 24% YoY; exports of latex amounted to 0.673 milliontons, up 8% YoY. In the Jan-Nov period, total exports of natural rubber to China hit 0.945 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Specifically,exports of standard rubber to China reached 0.558 million tons, down 12% YoY; exports of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled0.139 million tons, surging 248% YoY; exports of latex to China amounted to 0.244 million tons, up 59% YoY. In the same period, Thailand’s total exports of mixture rubber reached 1.581 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29%; mixturerubber exports to China stood at 1.573 million tons, a year-on-year rise of 32%. Overall, Thailand’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber reached 4 million tons in the first eleven months,a year-on-year growth of 4.6%; total exports to China hit 2.518 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24% Industry News 2.【ANRPC: Global Natural Rubber Output to Fall 2.6% and Consumption to Drop 1.4% in November】 In its latest November 2025 report, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that global naturalrubber output will decline by 2.6% year-on-year to 1.474 million tons in November, down 1.5% from the previous month; naturalrubber consumption is projected to drop by 1.4% year-on-year to 1.248 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the prior month. In the first eleven months of the year, cumulative global natural rubber output is expected to rise by 2% year-on-year to 13.375million tons, while cumulative consumption is predicted to fall by 1.7% year-on-year to 13.932 million tons. For the full year of 2025, global natural rubber output is forecast to grow by 1.3% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons. Breakdown bycountry/region shows: Thailand (+1.2%), Indonesia (-4.3%), China (+6%), India (+5.6%), Vietnam (-1.3%), Malaysia (-4.2%), Cambodia(+5.6%), Myanmar (+5.3%), and other countries (+3.5%). Global natural rubber consumption for 2025 is projected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year to 15.565 million tons. The consumptionbreakdown is as follows: China (+2.5%), India (+3.4%), Thailand (+6.1%), Indonesia (-19.3%), Malaysia (+2.6%), Vietnam (+1.5%),SriLanka (+6.7%), Cambodia (a sharp increase of 110.3%), and other countries (-3.5%). The report points out that natural rubber prices came under pressure in November due to supply concerns triggered by unstableweather conditions and weak demand. Market sentiment throughout the year has been mixed, with signs of recovery emerging intire trade across some regions.Source:Qinrex Industry News 3.【EU Passenger Car Sales Up 2.1% YoY in November】 According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), passenger car sales in the EUrose 2.1% year-on-year to 887,491 units in November 2025. Cumulative sales in the first eleven months of the year climbed 1.4%year-on-year to 9.86 million units. Despite the solid recent growth momentum, overall sales volume remains well below pre-pandemic levels. In the first eleven monthsof this year, the market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) reached 16.9%, in line with the full-year forecast; however,there is stillroom for growth to ensure a smooth transition to electrification. Hybrid vehicles emerged as the most popular powertrain option among consumers, accounting for a 34.6% market share, with plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) maintaining strong growth momentum. Meanwhile, the combined market share of gasoline and dieselvehicles dropped to 36.1%, down from 45.8% in the same period of 2024. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Rubber futures in both domestic and overseas markets surged sharply this week, with SGX TSR 20 rubber leadingthe gains. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spread of RU-NR、RU-BR and RU-JPX RSS3 has narrowed, while the price spreads of NR-SGX TSR20have widened. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢This week, the quoted prices in the imported rubber market edgedup, with traders mainly engaging in position rolling and cargoreplacement. The prices of mixture rubber (RMB) for deferred-month contracts traded at a premium over those for nearby-monthcontracts, prompting arbi